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Today's Commentary
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Minor dip
Stocks took a
breather yesterday as we saw modest losses in the major indices. The
Dow lost 24-points.
For the
TSP, the C-fund lost 0.17%, the S-fund
slipped 0.10%, the I-fund gained 0.72%, and the F-fund (bonds)
gained 0.25%.
The S&P 500 remains in a
strong narrow trading channel. What else can we say?
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
The dollar continues its schizophrenic ways as each week it seems to take
turns moving sharply in one direction or the other. The I-fund was up another 0.72% yesterday with the help of this
action. The question now is, does the dollar bounce off of the 78.75
area and head back up, or will it break down below support?
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
There are strong fundemental arguments on both sides of the bull / bear
dollar debate. I prefer to let the chart tell me, but with it being in this
sideways trading range, we can only wait to see which way it will break.
A break to the upside means the I-fund becomes less desirable going forward
in 2011. A break down means the I-fund is back in play.
The TSP Talk Sentiment
Survey came in at 49% bulls, 39% bears for a bulls to bears ratio of
1.26 to 1. Another surprisingly bearish reading (bullish for stocks) considering the strong
positive trend. Either investors are getting overly concerned about a
pullback being long-overdue, or perhaps the Intrepid Trader sell signal on
Wednesday morning had something to do with negative sentiment. Either way, the Survey
System will remain in the S-fund for next week.
Speaking of Intrepid Trader.
We will have to change his username on the message board, and the name of the system. Apparently
"Intrepid Trader" is already a registered trademark
for another service. He will be going by Intrepid_Timer and the system
will be "Intrepid_Timer's Market Timing Strategies". Look for the
change over the weekend.
Thanks for reading! Enjoy your long holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary
Administrative Note:
One of our long time forum members, Intrepid_Trader, will be starting a new
Premium Service here on TSP Talk. Intrepid developed his own trading
system and has had very good success over the years trading his TSP account,
and IRA accounts, and has been consistently near the top of our
AutoTracker.
We are offering a free trial to the service for the next several weeks.
You just need to create a login and password in the
premium services area (if you
don't already have one.) No payment information is needed. Just
create an account. Sign in, and you will have immediate access to
Interpid Trader's Investment Strategies Reports.
The reports will be ava ilable by 10:30 AM ET each morning, but his active
system signals are not always known until 11:00 AM to 11:30 AM ET, so you could
see multiple updates on some mornings. Because of this, you may want
to either get into the habit of checking the reports each morning after
11:30 AM ET, and/or sign up for the Intrepid Trader
email alerts.
We will send the emails, but unfortunately we can not guarantee that you
will receive them timely as not all mail servers are created equally -
especially your work servers, which are likely putting the emails through
several filters.
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