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Today's Commentary
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Late
reversal
The major stock indices were mostly flat yesterday, but it was quite a day.
We saw a nice late-day reversal as the Dow had been down about 80-points
with an hour to go in the trading day, but closed down just 3-points.
For the
TSP, the C-fund gained 0.03% yesterday, the S-fund
was up 0.07%, the I-fund slipped 0.15%, and the F-fund (bonds)
jumped 0.33%.
The S&P 500 nearly lost its hold
on the tight rising trading channel, but the strong close took it right back
in the channel. The resilience of this rally is quite remarkable as it
is now in its 9th week.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
You can see a small bear flag on the S&P 500 but it is a little more
pronounced, albeit small, in the chart of the Nasdaq. I think the
market needs another decent move higher in the next day or two to eliminate
this possible bearish development.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
It looks like we will either get a new high, or a pullback to the 50-day EMA,
depending on how this bear flag breaks in the next few days, and we have
some potential market moving events on deck.
The yield on the 10-year T-note continues to move sideways, rather than
break to the upside like typical bull flag formations. I think it has
been going long enough and like the stock indices, we should know soon
enough if yields break up or down.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
A break to the upside in
yields would be bearish for the F-fund. A break down in yields would
be bullish for the F-fund.
As I write this, the President was just getting ready to start the State of
the Union address. I can't see him saying anything that would be
overly bearish for the market, but you never know how the market is going to
react to news.
Also, today is day two of the two-day FOMC meeting and the policy statement
will be read at 2:15 PM ET. Like the SOTU address, it could be a
market mover so I won't speculate any more.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary
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