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Today's Commentary
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Rally resumes
Stocks had a
decent day yesterday and refreshingly, we saw the leaders actually come back
to life as the Dow and S&P 500 lagged.
For the
TSP, the C-fund gained 0.43% yesterday, the S-fund
was up 1.33%, the I-fund added 0.58%, and the F-fund (bonds)
dropped 0.40%.
The S&P 500 made a new
multi-year high. The technical picture is looking better but the index is
certainly stretched with the S&P now trading 125-points above its 200-day EMA.
Anything over 115 makes me nervous.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
The laggards had been outperforming the leaders lately. The
leaders, Dow Transports, Nasdaq and small caps
have not performed as well as the Dow and S&P 500 for the last several days.
but that changed yesterday. The Dow gained just 8-points (0.1%)
yesterday, but we saw
the Transports gain
1.1%...
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
The Nasdaq gained 0.70%...
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
And the small caps of the Russell 2000 jumped 1.8%.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
That's a positive and
we'd like to see that leadership continue. If they start to lag again,
that could be a big warning for us to proceed with caution. This their
chance.
I am bullish, but tentative, as we come to the end of January and into February, one of the
weaker months of the year historically. If we are going to get a
pullback, February may be the month we need to worry about.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary
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