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Today's Commentary
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Another dip?
The market took a needed rest yesterday as the indices saw modest losses
across the board. The Dow lost 42-points, more than 30-points off the
day's low, as we saw a little buying in late afternoon trading.

For the TSP, the C-fund
lost 0.31% yesterday, the S-fund
fell 0.62%, the I-fund added 0.28%, and the F-fund (bonds)
picked up 0.07%.
The S&P pulled back from longer-term overhead resistance and there's no
other way to look at this except to say it will be difficult for the market
to keep up this pace without some kind of consolidation. With one down
day in the books, a 2 to 3 day pullback sounds like a reasonable, and
healthy response to this relentless rally.

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
The support is rising quickly but right now it looks like 1320, 1310, and
the 1290-1300 area look like potential pullback targets. I wouldn't
complain if it happened, and I am still fully invested, but the overnight
futures are actually pointing toward a strong open. Those on the
sidelines can't seem to catch a break.
The dollar has risen back up to the old support levels and is struggling to
get any further. This is typical action after a breakdown. I
would be surprised if it is able to close above 78.75 for more than a day,
but the dollar always seems to surprise me.

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
Of course the
I-fund is the concern here. When the dollar is rising the I-fund tends
to lag. The I-fund was up yesterday, but that was a little fair value
payback.
Bond yields have been consolidating since the breakout a week or two ago.
Like the dollar breaking down and now struggling to get back above the old
support lines, the yields have pulled back and should find support at the
old resistance lines. That goes for both the yield on the 10-year
T-note and the 30-year bond.


Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
If bond yields turn back up
after testing the old resistance line, that would be bearish for the F-fund.
That would also likely initiate another move higher in stocks.
I would look for a upward reversal in the yields within the next 2 to 3
days.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow!
Tom Crowley
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