TSP Talk Market Comments TSP Tracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Message Board Returns


Market Comments

February 16, 2011


Current TSP Share Prices



Facebook

Twitter

Today's Commentary                                                             
Another dip?

The market took a needed rest yesterday as the indices saw modest losses across the board.  The Dow lost 42-points, more than 30-points off the day's low, as we saw a little buying in late afternoon trading.

                                  
For the TSP, the C-fund lost 0.31% yesterday, the S-fund fell 0.62%, the I-fund added 0.28%, and the F-fund (bonds) picked up 0.07%. 

The S&P pulled back from longer-term overhead resistance and there's no other way to look at this except to say it will be difficult for the market to keep up this pace without some kind of consolidation.  With one down day in the books, a 2 to 3 day pullback sounds like a reasonable, and healthy response to this relentless rally.

                         

                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The support is rising quickly but right now it looks like 1320, 1310, and the 1290-1300 area look like potential pullback targets.  I wouldn't complain if it happened, and I am still fully invested, but the overnight futures are actually pointing toward a strong open.  Those on the sidelines can't seem to catch a break.

The dollar has risen back up to the old support levels and is struggling to get any further.  This is typical action after a breakdown.  I would be surprised if it is able to close above 78.75 for more than a day, but the dollar always seems to surprise me.

                         

                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Of course the I-fund is the concern here.  When the dollar is rising the I-fund tends to lag.  The I-fund was up yesterday, but that was a little fair value payback. 

Bond yields have been consolidating since the breakout a week or two ago.  Like the dollar breaking down and now struggling to get back above the old support lines, the yields have pulled back and should find support at the old resistance lines.  That goes for both the yield on the 10-year T-note and the 30-year bond.


                         

                         

                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

 

If bond yields turn back up after testing the old resistance line, that would be bearish for the F-fund.  That would also likely initiate another move higher in stocks.

I would look for a upward reversal in the yields within the next 2 to 3 days.


Thanks for reading!  We'll see you tomorrow!

Tom Crowley

Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary
 

TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com.

Copyright © 2003 - 2011
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved

Buy Low Sell High, Inc., P.O. Box 13213, Ogden UT 84412