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Market Comments

February 17, 2011


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Today's Commentary                                                     
 

Are you bullish or bearish for next week?  Please take this week's Sentiment Survey.


New highs


The market tried to fool us on Tuesday getting everyone worried about a pullback, but yesterday we saw the major indices move to new highs yet again.  The Dow closed up 61+ points on the day.
                                  
For the TSP, the C-fund was up 0.64% yesterday, the S-fund gained 0.88%, the I-fund gained 0.98%, and the F-fund (bonds) slipped 0.03%. 

The S&P 500 just continues to ride inside the ascending trading channel, and except for that one-day, Egypt related sell-off on Friday January 28, it has basically stayed the course for nearly 3-months. 

The index is now 145-points above the 200-day EMA (cringe) but there are surprisingly few indicators to be found that are screaming sell.   

                         

                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


As I've been saying lately, other than sentiment, I am not watching the indicators very closely because the action in the indices is telling the real story.  At some point the indicators will mean something, but the market action is sometimes the best indicator.  And at some point this rally will end, but so far all of the bearish predictions have been wrong.  I'm hoping the charts get us out before the recent gains are eaten given up.

The market leader Dow Transpiration Index did breakout yesterday, after a brief bull flag formation.  This is another good sign for the broader market, coming from this economically sensitive transportation index.
 
                         

                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


We have a holiday on Monday and the trading surrounding President's day isn't as positive historically as most holidays. 

 

                               Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


Of course February in general isn't strong historically and look what the indices have done during the first 12 trading days in February.

With earnings season winding down, the next jobs report still over two weeks away, and the next FOMC meeting a month away, there isn't much out there to stir the pot for the next couple of weeks, except for perhaps some geopolitical unrest.  It will be interesting to see how investors react during a quiet period after this monster rally.  How about you?  Are you still buying the dips or looking for the exit?

Thanks for reading!  We'll see you tomorrow!

Tom Crowley

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