|
|
Today's Commentary
|
|
Are you bullish or
bearish for next week? Please take this week's
Sentiment Survey. |
New highs
The market tried to fool us on Tuesday getting everyone worried about a
pullback, but yesterday we saw the major indices move to new highs yet
again. The Dow closed up 61+ points on the day.
For the TSP, the C-fund
was up 0.64% yesterday, the S-fund
gained 0.88%, the I-fund gained 0.98%, and the F-fund (bonds)
slipped 0.03%.
The S&P 500 just continues to ride inside the ascending trading channel,
and except for that one-day, Egypt related sell-off on Friday January 28, it has basically stayed
the course for nearly 3-months.
The index is now 145-points above the 200-day EMA
(cringe) but there are surprisingly few indicators to be found that are
screaming sell.

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
As I've been saying lately, other than sentiment, I am not watching the
indicators very closely because the action in the indices is telling the
real story. At some point the indicators will mean something, but the
market action is sometimes the best indicator. And at some point this
rally will end, but so far all of the bearish predictions have been wrong.
I'm hoping the charts get us out before the recent gains are eaten given up.
The market leader Dow Transpiration Index did breakout yesterday, after a
brief bull flag formation. This is another good sign for the broader market,
coming from this economically sensitive transportation index.

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
Talk
We have a holiday on Monday and the trading surrounding President's day
isn't as positive historically as most holidays.

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Of course February in general isn't strong historically and look what the
indices have done during the first 12 trading days in February.
With earnings season winding down, the next jobs report still over two weeks
away, and the next FOMC meeting a month away, there isn't much out there to
stir the pot for the next couple of weeks, except for perhaps some
geopolitical unrest. It will be interesting to see how investors react
during a quiet period after this monster rally. How about you?
Are you still buying the dips or looking for the exit?
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow!
Tom Crowley
Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary
|
TSP Talk does not guarantee the
accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any
liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such
information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change
without notice and are for general information only. The information
contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to
be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise
distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com.
Copyright © 2003 - 2011
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
Buy Low Sell High, Inc., P.O. Box 13213, Ogden UT 84412
|