The bad news this weekend is the continued unrest in the Middle East with the protests and violence escalating in Libya and it is causing a sharp spike up in the price of oil.  It was trading up nearly 8% as of late Sunday night.

            

This was putting pressure on the U.S. stock futures and markets around the world last night.

                                      

Monday morning gaps can get filled rather quickly if this is an emotional reaction, which means we should know by early afternoon if this is a buying opportunity or if we might expect a more prolonged pullback.
                         
The S&P 500 closed at 1343 on Friday.  The short-term rising trendline is around 1327.  The 20-day EMA is currently 1316, and the 50-day EMA id 1284.  These are the support areas I will be watching for during the day. 

I did raise some cash last week but still have more than half of my money in the stock funds.  I am out of IFT's for February but of course we always have the option to sell at any time.  Ideally I'd like to see a slow move down toward the 50-day EMA with me selling along the way, and then when March comes around use an IFT to buy back in before the rally resumes.  I'm never that lucky, however.

The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 50% bullish, 37% bearish for a bulls to bears ratio of  1.35 to 1.  That is neutral reading in a bull market.  So, the Sentiment Survey System's allocation will remain the same for this week at 100% S-Fund.

Thanks for reading!  We'll see you tomorrow.

Tom Crowley