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Market Comments

February 9, 2011


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Today's Commentary                                                              

More of the same

Stocks rallied.  Bonds moved lower.  The Dow moved higher for the 7th straight day closing up another 72-points. 
                                
For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.45% yesterday, the S-fund was up 0.53%, the I-fund added 0.83%, and the F-fund (bonds) lost 0.35%. 

The S&P 500 moved up toward the upper end of the rising trading channel - something we have seen time and again since this current rally start in December.  The index is now 141-points above the 200-day EMA, which is quite extended, but with pullbacks being very short-lived, it is tough to be a seller.

                         

                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

This is not a trader's market unless you are looking very short term moves. 

A follow-up on the Dow Transportation Index shows that while it was able to rally 0.3% on the day, resistance was tested yesterday, and held.

                         

                        Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

It remains above the 50-day EMA but is having trouble getting back above the 20-day EMA, which the other indices have easily done already.  Nothing overly concerning, but still worth watching.

The market has taken on a mind of its own and whether to fight this or not has become a tough question.  Those sitting on the sidelines must be chomping at the bit for an opportunity to buy, and those who are in the market are excited but worried about an inevitable pullback. 

Like we saw a week and a half ago because of the news out of Egypt, a bad news event can cause a quick sell-off in a market like this because of the anticipation of a pullback, but I suspect the dip buyers won't be far behind.   


Thanks for reading!  We'll see you tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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