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Market Comments

March 10, 2011


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Today's Commentary                                                    
 

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Waiting for the next move


Stocks were flat to slightly lower yesterday as the Dow lost 1-point on the day. 
                              
For the TSP, the C-fund slipped 0.12% yesterday, the S-fund fell 0.34%, the I-fund added 0.05%, and the F-fund (bonds) gained 0.31%. 

The S&P 500 remains in a triangle pattern, and a little less noticeable is a diamond pattern.  Both are bullish formations normally, but many times these patterns will give us a fake-out move to the downside, before the real move so be aware of that possibility.

                       
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

We saw it during the November pullback where it looked like the S&P 500 was going to break down from a triangle pattern, but it turned out to be a fake-out that found support at the 50-day EMA and a new leg of the bull market started.
                        
                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Oil opened higher on Wednesday, with the April contract nearly hitting 106 early on, but lost ground as the day went on.  Stocks did the inverse. 

         

With the Saudi Arabian protests scheduled to start tomorrow, things could get wild in the oil market.  And how many investors are going to want to hold stocks over the weekend with this uncertainty? 

We saw the "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario play out with the jobs report last week.  Will we see a "sell the rumor, buy the news" reaction to Saudi Arabia?

Thanks for reading!  We'll see you back here tomorrow.


Tom Crowley

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