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Market Comments March 4, 2011 Current TSP Share Prices Facebook Twitter

Today's Commentary

Big bounce, now jobs Stocks rallied sharply yesterday as the bulls seemed to haven gotten tired of waiting for the bears to make their move.  The Dow gained 191-points as the wild swings continue.                                For the TSP, the C-fund jumped 1.73% yesterday, the S-fund gained 2.04%, the I-fund picked up 1.00%, and the F-fund (bonds) dropped 0.44% as yields rallied.  The rally was triggered by a stabilization in oil prices and the rumor of a strong jobs report today.  That could mean a "sell the news" reaction if the report is not "great".  Estimates are for a gain of about 185,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 9.1%. Update: Actual +192,000 and 8.9% The "rhyme" of the S&P 500 and the January action in the Russell 2000 is continuing.  Whenever I find these patterns, it seems they end on the day I find them.  Not this time.                                                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The small caps of the Russell did exceptionally well today, but I am looking more at the January pattern in the chart that the S&P seems to be following.  If this continues we could see 2 to 3 days of consolidation before another push higher.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I don't know if it can last, but as long as it does we have ourselves a little roadmap.  The Dow Transports had a big day as well moving up 2.5% and and regaining the 50 and 20-day EMA's.  I see a pretty good head and shoulders pattern has developed, and while H&S patterns can be bearish, they are more bearish in bear market.  They are actually continuation patterns that can be bearish in bear markets, and bullish in a bull market.                                                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The question is, can the transportation stocks withstand $100 oil?  Today's rally seemed to suggest that it can.  I think the market in general isn't overly concerned with $100 oil - but it is terrified of the prospect of $150 oil, and at times the unrest in the Middle East presents that possibility.  Hugo Chevez, of all people, eased the tensions in Libya yesterday, and that helped oil stabilize. A quick follow-up on bond yields show that the 50-day EMA did hold and the sharp rally in yields pushed the F-fund down.                                                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey saw a sharp increase in bullishness after yesterday's big rally.  Still it was not enough to move the system to a sell signal.  The bulls (55%) to bears (32%) ratio of 1.72 to 1 is neutral so the system's allocation remains 100% S-Fund for next week.                                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Thanks for reading!  Have a great weekend! Tom Crowley Click here to discuss today's Market Commentary

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