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| Today's Commentary |
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Technical picture hurting
again Stocks slipped again on Friday making last week a tough one for the stock market. The Dow lost 17-points, but the broader indices were hit a little harder. For the TSP, the C-fund dropped 0.40%, the S-fund fell 0.75%, and the I-fund lost 0.15%. The F-fund (bonds) added 0.17%. For the week, the TSP funds all finished lower as the C-fund lost 3.71%, the S-fund gave up 5.28%, and the I-fund fell 4.75%. Bonds (F-fund) rallied 0.30% and the G-fund added 0.05%.
Last week's losses took all the stock fund into the red for the month of August, and it has now pushed the C-fund into negative territory for the year. That leaves the S-fund as the only stock fund with a gain in 2010. We could be due for an oversold rally, but the technical damage is getting bad and caution levels need to remain high. The 50 and 200-day EMA's have been compromised again, and with the 50-day EMA heading downward again, it could easily move back below the 200-day EMA, which would give us yet another switch in the "official" indicator that tells us whether we are in a bull or a bear market - back to bear market - but it hasn't happened quite yet. Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I would only look for short-term hit and run attempts at the stock funds, but again, the risks are obviously high. I am still on vacation but will return late tonight. On Wednesday I have to take care of some personal issues and it could keep me out of commission through the end of the week, although the premium service reports should get updated as usual. Thanks for reading! I'll touch base again tomorrow. Tom Crowley 08/13/10 Dollar up - stocks down Stocks opened lower again yesterday on some weaker than expected jobless claims. The opening low held and the Dow closed down 59-points.  For the TSP, the C-fund dropped 0.52%, the S-fund fell 0.42%, and the I-fund slipped 0.05%. The F-fund (bonds) lost 0.16%. The S&P 500 chart does not look overly inviting but of course the indicators are getting oversold, and sentiment is getting overly bearish.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk We had expected the stock market to pull back once we see a rebound in the dollar. It took longer than I thought it would, and the strength of the rally also surprised me. It pushed right back through the200-day EMA without a problem. We'll have to see if the 50-day EMA acts as resistance as it is about to test it...  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey System moved to a buy signal for next week after the 0.46 to 1 bulls (29%) to bears (63%) ratio. I'm on vacation for the next week so I will be cutting the commentaries short. Thanks for reading! I'll touch base again tomorrow. Tom Crowley |
