Fasten Your Seatbelts...

[tsptalk]

A half hour until the announcement on interest rates. Get ready for some bouncing around.

[tsptalk]

1/4 point hike.

[puertorico]

that can make the market go dow the hill....:s

[Rod]

puertorico wrote:
that can make the market go dow the hill....:s


Actually, the hike is GOOD news!

It "shows" that the economy is growing.

I'd be worried if there WASN'T a hike.

[Rod]

It's nice to finally have a green day!:^

[tsptalk]

I agree it should be a good sign since the market fell on the 'bad" economic news of a slowing jobs market and this tells us the economy is still recovering. But I never discount what puertorico says. His instincts are very good.

[Rod]

tsptalk wrote:
I agree it should be a good sign since the market fell on the 'bad" economic news of a slowing jobs market and this tells us the economy is still recovering. But I never discount what puertorico says. His instincts are very good.


Yeah, we all win some and lose some.;)

[Rod]

Now Tom, aren't you glad you "stayed the course" in stocks???:D

[puertorico]

tsp said, no discount what PR SAID

hOw that come ?

anyway I discount my self. jajjjaja by the way thanks Tom.

YES folk a good day, "about time":D

:^give me the greeeNNNnnn:^

[Rod]

puertorico wrote:
tsp said, no discount what PR SAID

hOw that come ?

anyway I discount my self. jajjjaja by the way thanks Tom.

YES folk a good day, "about time":D

:^give me the greeeNNNnnn:^

We don't discount you simply because of how that market has been behaving lately.;)

[puertorico]

:Dwao Rod dont tell me! This month

have BEEN the worse ever in my account.

Very difficult market even for the big fish.

....Just when I says something,do the oposite,

and u gonna be alright:D

[Rod]

puertorico wrote:
:Dwao Rod dont tell me! This month

have BEEN the worse ever in my account.

Very difficult market even for the big fish.

....Just when I says something,do the oposite,

and u gonna be alright:D



:D:^:D

[Rolo]

Rod wrote:
green day!:^


Here's some Green Day for you...about as close as we are getting...fits the recentmarket.... :X



Brain Stew

I'm having trouble trying to sleep
I'm counting sheep but running out
As time ticks by
And still I try
No rest for crosstops in my mind
On my own... here we go


My eyes feel like they're gonna bleed
Dried up and bulging out my skull
My mouth is dry
My face is numb
F----d up and spun out in my room
On my own... here we go


My mind is set on overdrive
The clock is laughing in my face (hehe, change "clock" to "stock")
A crooked spine
My sense dulled
Passed the point of delerium
On my own... here we go

[tsptalk]

Rod wrote:
Now Tom, aren't you glad you "stayed the course" in stocks???:D

Today I am . Last six weeks... nah. :)

[Rolo]

I had all I could stand and I unloaded just about everything, except Ileft TSP alone for now. These dips turned to sags which look like the beginnings of a downtrend. Neither bear nor bull, I am "wait and see".

The election year graph givesa compellingreason to be optimistic, but one thing scares me: this year has completely deviated from that average a while ago. It wasn't until after last week's pummeling that I saw that.

http://www.i-cynic.com/top-left.jpg
note the rose-coloured glasses (http://www.i-cynic.com)

Looks like it's gonna be a rough morning......................:@

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
Looks like it's gonna be a rough morning......................:@


I think you're right.

So much for yesterday's gains!:P

[puertorico]

TODAY 100%stock AND thingking go to G A LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

i Want out ,Can no take it anymore.Not shure yet ,

I have 1 hour to think about it.:?May I thru the towel "no mas"

[Rich]

As long as the price of oil stays above 40$per barrel I believe we will see negative sentiment. Right now the 45$ per barrel has not hit the pumps yet and when it does there goes consumer confidence and we will see a big dip

[TSP-roulette]

I just did Puerto Rico, gotta stop the bleeding. "G" it is, for the time being. Adios.:(

[Rod]

Rolo wrote:
Rod wrote:
green day!:^


Here's some Green Day for you...about as close as we are getting...fits the recentmarket.... :X



Brain Stew

I'm having trouble trying to sleep
I'm counting sheep but running out
As time ticks by
And still I try
No rest for crosstops in my mind
On my own... here we go


My eyes feel like they're gonna bleed
Dried up and bulging out my skull
My mouth is dry
My face is numb
F----d up and spun out in my room
On my own... here we go


My mind is set on overdrive
The clock is laughing in my face (hehe, change "clock" to "stock")
A crooked spine
My sense dulled
Passed the point of delerium
On my own... here we go



:DSaw them at Woodstock '94

[Rod]

puertorico wrote:


TODAY 100%stock AND thingking go to G A LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

i Want out ,Can no take it anymore.Not shure yet ,

I have 1 hour to think about it.:?May I thru the towel "no mas"

I'm staying put because everytime I seek shelter, the bulls are released!:P

Ride'n this storm out

[puertorico]

Rich wrote:
As long as the price of oil stays above 40$per barrel I believe we will see negative sentiment. Right now the 45$ per barrel has not hit the pumps yet and when it does there goes consumer confidence and we will see a big dip



That the main reason "oil"

That's what I was thinking about oil.Plus most of the time that

interes rise market slow down for a least a week.

{irak u never know and political season}to much together.

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=schart&cb=18203958&symbol=FX^EURUS&perio d=1&frequency=0&w=190&h=152&f=135443&ls=11 (http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=charts&symbol=FX^EURUS&period=1&freq=0)

eURO IS IN THE BOTTOm AND DOLLAR UP:s

IFI get out may the market do a gigant jump up,

AND Euro fly to the sky:?WHO KNOWS:D

[smine]

Moving more to G. Can't stand losing hard earned $.

[puertorico]

50-G 50-F "EFECTIVE THURSDAY"

:sthru the towel :D

Two more down Tom, what is the bullish / bearish indicator now? LOL :P

[puertorico]

mlk_man wrote:
Two more down Tom, what is the bullish / bearish indicator now? LOL :P


tHat's true :DLOL





when fed lower rates ,stock go to the roof

and when fed rise rates affect stock:D

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
Two more down Tom, what is the bullish / bearish indicator now? LOL :P


Let's stick to our guns, MM!;)

[WiseOne]

i went 100% F for now - i threw in the towel for now too......

[tsptalk]

mlk_man wrote:
Two more down Tom, what is the bullish / bearish indicator now? LOL :P
:DWe'll find out tomorrow, but judging by the recent bearishness of the members of this normally bullish board, I'm guessing it's getting very close to 40% bearish. But then again, puertorico is has excellent instincts and has a good feel for the market. Probably the best on the board so I respect his decisions.

My "magic 8 ball" says we are going to start rising today..............:P

Rod wrote:


Let's stick to our guns, MM!;)
I'm a stickin'! :!

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
My "magic 8 ball" says we are going to start rising today..............:P


You're freak'n 8 ball is CrAzY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!:P

Fat lady ain't singin' yet!!!:u

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote:
judging by the recent bearishness of the members of this normally bullish board, I'm guessing it's getting very close to 40% bearish.
40% was the number.

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
Fat lady ain't singin' yet!!!:u


BUT, she sure is a eat'n up the profits!!!:P

:D

LOL, least we still have our sense of humor right? ;)

[smine]

OHHHHHHH WEEEE! Market is already toilet bound. I have gradually given up the ship with on 20 in S and 20 in C. Looking for green today may be a lost cause.

[puertorico]

:^Tom U ranking me !:shock:I'm scare now...not that good:D

My shoot for today was, trye to cut looses,

The weather in the market was at the right time

to do the move?.LOOK LIKE IT,"dont know yetwill see later"

but that number u post {40 bear}Gonna make me

comeback to the game and may buy lower.I have to

be in game, not would like ;)to miss the Bus.

"buy low sell high". SO, Thinking to get in today...:DPUT me in...:shock:

[canis-d]

Are you guys trying to move your retirement money in/out on a daily basis?

Take a look at the daily or weekly charts... we're in a clear downtrend; don't fight it and wait for a clear turnaround. I feel for you people that are clinging to hope and trying to pick a bottom.

The weekly uptrend starting last April has clearly broken down. When we do turn around there will be plenty of upmove left after the turning point is shown. Please don't keep trying to catch a falling knife when it comes to your retirement savings!

Canis-D

[puertorico]

Thank's Canis ...welcome:^



....see nascaq and s&p500 in the year low.

That kind oflow is a temptation...;)

LOL, thanks for your concern. Up 10% for the year. I don't need your pity. :!

[canis-d]

Haha, fair enough.

To each his own; I wish you all well, but the day to day stomach grinding (at least for me) just isn't worth it.

I follow a simple, long-term plan for my retirement funds that only sticks with the major trends (3-4 trades per year, generally)and am up more than 10% for the year without having to watch every day.

Best wishes, and keep on hoping! Just don't give yourself an ulcer.



Canis-D

I bought stock in Rolaids. ;)

[canis-d]

rico,

Sure, it is a temptation... but in about July 03 when the Nasdaq was at a 12 month high were you looking to sell?

I certainly can't see into the future, but just as the markets continued to rise well past July 03, just because we're at or near a 12 month low doesn't mean it can't go lower!

Really, being at a 12 month low is generally a sign of weakness, not strength! Just as being at a 12 month high is generallya sign of strength, not weakness. Of course, at the extreme highs and lows there is also the fact that the psychology of market participants push things too far, but I don't know that we can say that we're at those extreme lows now.

But anyway... go with what works for you!



Canis-D

[Rod]

canis-d wrote:
Haha, fair enough.

To each his own; I wish you all well, but the day to day stomach grinding (at least for me) just isn't worth it.

I follow a simple, long-term plan for my retirement funds that only sticks with the major trends (3-4 trades per year, generally)and am up more than 10% for the year without having to watch every day.

Best wishes, and keep on hoping! Just don't give yourself an ulcer.



Canis-D



So, what's your current TSP allocation?

[puertorico]

Canis I respect everybodies ,welcome all kind of advice...:D

If a knew tha market were going down Iwere getting out jun 25

Dow was at 13.63 but I become too greedy.I suposed to play,

in the top to grap the profit."hope next time to be more educate"

and keep my limit up."NOT EASY WHEN MARKET LOOK GOOD"

sUre I will read u and all post ,in the final I will do my own choice

NOw Im looking for a sell-off today and see tomorrow the green...:^

I feel like some kind of bottom too.sooner than later so I already

buyed some stock and add more litle by little.Of course there more

room to go down but will still bye more in a low price.

That my game plan...:^

[tsptalk]

canis-d wrote:
Are you guys trying to move your retirement money in/out on a daily basis?

Take a look at the daily or weekly charts... we're in a clear downtrend; don't fight it and wait for a clear turnaround. I feel for you people that are clinging to hope and trying to pick a bottom.

The weekly uptrend starting last April has clearly broken down. When we do turn around there will be plenty of upmove left after the turning point is shown. Please don't keep trying to catch a falling knife when it comes to your retirement savings!

Canis-D

Hello Canis-D. Thanks for joining us. I do think your strategy is a sound one. Fewer transfers watching the main trend is a great adea. The only problem I have is that in late April, when you could say the uptrend ended, the S&P 500 was not much higher than it is now and we had an explosive rally to near new highs right after it (~ 1095 to ~1150). I didn't play it too wellbut their was money to be made for someone whose timing was better than mine. For this "downtrend" to end, the S&P will have to climb to about 1140 or almost 80 points from where we are now. That's a big chunk to miss. I would stake my reputation (which isn't worth much at this point :shock:) on the next 80 point move being up, rather than down.


I wish you all well, but the day to day stomach grinding (at least for me) just isn't worth it.
:DTo most people that is a true statement. But it is like telling an avid gardner that it is easier tobuy tomatos at the grocery store. Most of us hereenjoy following the market. It fills our otherwise pathetic lives.

Tom

Well it's Friday the 13th. What do you bet with the way things are going, we get a bounce up today? Or perhaps a big drop.....................:end:

Futures are up this morning, so let's hope for the best.:^

[Rod]

mlk_man wrote:
Well it's Friday the 13th. What do you bet with the way things are going, we get a bounce up today? Or perhaps a big drop.....................:end:

Futures are up this morning, so let's hope for the best.:^



My gut tells me we'll see some green, but not a lot.

[Frizz B.]

I love this comment, thanks Tom, fo true
[line]
But it is like telling an avid gardner that it is easier tobuy tomatos at the grocery store. Most of us hereenjoy following the market. It fills our otherwise pathetic lives.
[line]
In Oregon, we have video poker, Casino's, Football gambling, so for some of us with a pathetic life, I do like to gamble, almost to much, this is a way to fill my pathetic life and enjoy. It has also helped me stay away from the other gambling, where I was losing to much. :dude:

[tsptalk]

Frizz B. wrote:
In Oregon, we have video poker, Casino's, Football gambling, so for some of us with a pathetic life, I do like to gamble, almost to much, this is a way to fill my pathetic life and enjoy.
I think that is very common among traders. One thing Alexander Elder stresses in "Trading For A Living",is tonot let trading be your entertainment.

So keep gambling in those casinos. It will help your trading. :)

[canis-d]

Thanks for the response, Tom.

I'm not trying to 'knock' what anyone is doing, and I certainly understand the entertainment value to watching and trying to time the market. I guess the important thing is whether or not your balance is higher or lower at the end of the year/month/etc.

I've tried 'timing' the market based just on my own gut feelings, by the obvious 'it is SO LOW/HIGH it HAS to go UP/DOWN', etc. and other emotional methods and/or indicators. The problem is that it is so easy to become 'married' to a position (ie. the type of thing that makes one say 'but I'll bet the next 80 point move will be up rather than down'!)

Someone earlier asked me what my TSP allocation was. I actually came across a link to this site while searching for something else and do not have a TSP. However, my retirement plan's 'core options' appear to be similar in nature to those that are listed here.

Good luck to all of you!



Canis-D

[Rod]

Rod wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
Well it's Friday the 13th. What do you bet with the way things are going, we get a bounce up today? Or perhaps a big drop.....................:end:

Futures are up this morning, so let's hope for the best.:^



My gut tells me we'll see some green, but not a lot.



Some green it is. But we have a ways to go.

[tsptalk]

canis-d wrote:
I'm not trying to 'knock' what anyone is doing, and I certainly understand the entertainment value to watching and trying to time the market. I guess the important thing is whether or not your balance is higher or lower at the end of the year/month/etc.

Not a problem. I didn't take it as a knock. We have this discussion oftenhere and I think we have all learned a lot by hearing both sides.

Good luck to you too!

[Rod]

C'MON BABY!!!

SHOW THOSE OF US WHO ARE STILL INVESTED THE GREEN!!!:^

Not quite 2%, but I'll take 1.5%. :^

[Rolo]

tsptalk wrote:

We have this discussion oftenÂ*here and I think we have all learned a lot by hearing both sides.


Amen to that!

...especially when I think, "If I were Azanon and he were me, I would be saying 'I told you so!'" lol

Looking like another another up day!!:D

[puertorico]

:^way up folks:^



I have a question here ?

"Friday 20 start option week "

tHat means market go down ?or not always ?

[tsptalk]

puertorico wrote:
I have a question here ?

"Friday 20 start option week "

tHat means market go down ?or not always ?

Options expiration week is typically good. The week after is weaker than normal.

http://www.tsptalk.com/images/s&poptionavgreturn.gif

[puertorico]

Thanks Tom for the Graffic

Yes I understand the week after of expirations,most of the time

the market go down .



EXPIRATION OPTIONS FRIDAY 20.

sO ,eAsy outthere after friday...:^just precaution:^

[Rod]

4 DAY STREAK, AND HOLDING!!!:^

Feels good to be invested... especially after the last few weeks.;)

[Rod]

It's really nice to see that record high oil prices are no longer bringing the market into the RED like it was.

:^

[tsptalk]

Yeah, like we had said a couple of weeks ago, in this phase of a bull market, bad news is treated as good news. The market finds any reason to go higher. I just hope we are at that point now.

[Timer]

tsptalk wrote:
in this phase of a bull market, bad news is treated as good news. I am still new to watching the market on a daily basis but I can't believe that oil being as high as it is and going higher, the market is going up the way it is. Currently I am 40C 45S and 15I. I know I shouldn't be in the I but... like a moth to the flame.

[Rod]

Timer wrote:
tsptalk wrote:
in this phase of a bull market, bad news is treated as good news. I am still new to watching the market on a daily basis but I can't believe that oil being as high as it is and going higher, the market is going up the way it is. Currently I am 40C 45S and 15I. I know I shouldn't be in the I but... like a moth to the flame.


Oil is back below $48 a barrel.:^

[tsptalk]

tsptalk wrote:
canis-d wrote:
Are you guys trying to move your retirement money in/out on a daily basis?

Take a look at the daily or weekly charts... we're in a clear downtrend; don't fight it and wait for a clear turnaround. I feel for you people that are clinging to hope and trying to pick a bottom.

The weekly uptrend starting last April has clearly broken down. When we do turn around there will be plenty of upmove left after the turning point is shown. Please don't keep trying to catch a falling knife when it comes to your retirement savings!

Canis-D

Hello Canis-D. Thanks for joining us. I do think your strategy is a sound one. Fewer transfers watching the main trend is a great adea. The only problem I have is that in late April, when you could say the uptrend ended, the S&P 500 was not much higher than it is now and we had an explosive rally to near new highs right after it (~ 1095 to ~1150). I didn't play it too wellbut their was money to be made for someone whose timing was better than mine. For this "downtrend" to end, the S&P will have to climb to about 1140 or almost 80 points from where we are now. That's a big chunk to miss. I would stake my reputation (which isn't worth much at this point :shock:) on the next 80 point move being up, rather than down...

Tom

canis-d wrote:
I've tried 'timing' the market based just on my own gut feelings, by the obvious 'it is SO LOW/HIGH it HAS to go UP/DOWN', etc. and other emotional methods and/or indicators. The problem is that it is so easy to become 'married' to a position (ie. the type of thing that makes one say 'but I'll bet the next 80 point move will be up rather than down'!)

Canis-D

This may sound a lot like gloating but it is more to make a point. I also haven't been able to gloat for quite a while so maybe a little. The above exchange took place on or about August 13. Since then the S&P is up 60 points or about 6%.

Maybe someone with more patience than I have can wait it out, but I am curious if Canis-D is still on the sidelines? We are still in that downtrend but as I mentioned, you would have to miss a big chunk before that downtrend ends. This is why I get antsy. I do admit that we are closer to the top of the trend then the bottom. So either we have a breakout and a new upward trend, or we are close to an about face and head down. Either way we had a nice 6% gain that was there for the taking. This is when timing works. Those of us who picked up this gain can step aside and lock in those gains if we wanted.

Tom

[Spaf]

What is all the excitement!

The first 12 days of August were bearish. We hit a low about August 12th. With few exceptions the TSP accounts have risen since then. C was at 11.25 on 8-12. Today it closed out at 11:88.

Stocks appear to be going up. If the moving average of say 20 days crosses atop the prices, Yeh I'll move to the G fund. Otherwise I'll be in stocks tomorrow. If things turn bearish. Heck we can transfer within 1 day. :)