TSP Pilot

[Av8r]

Have recently seen some email traffic from " TSP Pilot" ********.com. Anyone have any experience with this allocation company?

[tsptalk]

I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.

[Rod]

tsptalk wrote:
I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.
Exactly! Check out this disclaimer:

"Past stated hypothetical performance is not an indication of future performance."

:oo

[smine]

kinda pricy too!:cool:

[Dakota]

even with the specially reduced prices, I think I would rather listen to ya'll, do my own calculations and take my best semi-educated guess. That way I'm to blame if I make a bad call now and then. I think I've done fairly well just watching everyday.

I can't get enough of you all's comments, sometimes I spend too much time just looking for a new posting, but it is fun as well.

My two cents
I would welcome a service such as this and would not mind paying at the price asked for but I’m hesitant to join because of the lack of information on the website regarding the group’s abilities and skills. Missing on the website are indications of the organizers’ authenticity. Are they credible? Are they crooks? There are no testimonials, recommendations, associations, partners or groups to speak of or for this service group.

tsptalk wrote:
I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.Why not Tom, my new system is averaging 25%?

[tsptalk]

mlk_man wrote:
tsptalk wrote:
I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.Why not Tom, my new system is averaging 25%?
I wouldn't doubt that your systemproduced a 25% return this year. Their claim is that they averaged 22.7% for 15 years. And that includes a bear market where the Nasdaq lost about 80% of its value.That is based on backtesting no doubt. I am saying that if someone joins, it is unrealistic to expect to makea 22% average return just because that worked for an after the fact system.

If someone can average 15% a year they'd be a billion dollar money manger. Warren Buffettwould joining their service.

I'm not saying they have a bad service. Not at all. It could be a good system. I'm saying that their claims need to be clarified that it all backtested hypothetical and not actual results. There is some small print at the bottom that says this. I'll give them that.

tsptalk wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
tsptalk wrote:
I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.Why not Tom, my new system is averaging 25%?
I wouldn't doubt that your systemproduced a 25% return this year. Their claim is that they averaged 22.7% for 15 years. And that includes a bear market where the Nasdaq lost about 80% of its value.That is based on backtesting no doubt. I am saying that if someone joins, it is unrealistic to expect to makea 22% average return just because that worked for an after the fact system.

If someone can average 15% a year they'd be a billion dollar money manger. Warren Buffettwould joining their service.

I'm not saying they have a bad service. Not at all. It culd be a good system. I'm saying that their claims need to be clarified that it all backtested hypothetical and not actual results. There is some small print at the bottom that says this. I'll give them that.



Hmmm, I'll have to look into being a money manager I reckon.......:P

[zoeb]

Av8r wrote:
Have recently seen some email traffic from " TSP Pilot" ********.com. Anyone have any experience with this allocation company?


I rather save my $ and follow Tom's advice. :^

[tsptalk]

zoeb wrote:
Av8r wrote:
Have recently seen some email traffic from " TSP Pilot" ********.com. Anyone have any experience with this allocation company?
I rather save my $ and follow Tom's advice. :^

:D

I've also received several emails from them recently. In the first one, they claimed to have back tested their system for 3 years. I didn't think that was good enough so I just ignored it. The most recent email claimed to back test for 15 years with solid results. They alsolist their recent recommendations from January to September 2004. If those recommendations are true, and onefollowed those recommendations, they'd be up 12% during a period when each of the individual funds was up only 1-3%. Very impressive...but then again,those past recs could also be fabricated to give that impression. How do I know if they are legit?So, like you, I've tried to see how reputable this company is. Can't find anything in BBB about them. Looking at the website, I noticed that they list no person's name, no phone # and no street address. They list no organization name other than TSP Pilot. Then I looked at the disclaimers and got really alarmed. Besides the fact that once you sign up, you are signed up for life until you withdraw, the disclaimers were disturbing. It said that subscriptions of a year or more had limited money back guarantees for up to 60 days, but that any subscriptions for less time than that had no money back. So, in other words, if you took out a 6 month subscription and wanted to quit after a month, you were out of luck and your money. If you took out a 12 or 24 month subscription, you might get some money back, but who knows how much?

The website states that they are in Maryland yet the disclaimer says that they are governed by the laws of Michigan. Also, any customer who disputes a credit card payment is subject to a fine, suspension and account termination. A charge of $25.00 per chargeback is assessed. Sounds like they're anticipating a slew of chargebacks. A whois search finds that the site is owned by a lawyer in MD who does not specialize in finance.

IMHO, this doesn't pass the smell test. I would recommend that people BEWARE.

[ou81200]

Maybe someone should report them to the BBB. Sounds like a scam to me:shock:.

Nice contribution.....http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_17_206.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)

Word to the wise, be careful what you say....................it may be held against you.........

[Rolo]

mlk_man wrote:
tsptalk wrote:
I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.Why not Tom, my new system is averaging 25%?
What system, Mike?

Rolo wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
tsptalk wrote:
I don't like their claims of 22.7% returns for the last 15 years. I'm sure that's back-testing hypothetical returns but that is just not realistic.Why not Tom, my new system is averaging 25%?
What system, Mike?
The new system I developed while you where gone. But it's actually over 30%. I was screwing myself by not applying my gains to a balance. :^

[tsptalk]

Welcome saraho! Thanks for joining us.

[Rolo]

Oh, that one slipped by...Welcome, saraho!

[line]

mlk_man wrote:

The new system I developed while you where gone. But it's actually over 30%. I was screwing myself by not applying my gains to a balance. :^
Tell me more! Is it in your account talk? (I am still catching up, heh)

[74vetguy]

I joined a few weeks ago, I've been watching what some of the members are doing. IMHO, I say, why pay, when followingthe advice on this site is free. I will continue to follow certian individauls allocations for the rest of the year and then jump out with gusto come Jan.



Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving:)

[cougarcash]

CAREFUL going to this site. I went there and clicked around and it put a TROJAN HORSE VIRUS on my computer.

The company was only created on April 2, 2004 in Michigan. How could they have recommendations going back to January, as they state?

http://tinyurl.com/645gn

[Valeri]

I disagree with many of the comments here on this service. I subscribe to TSP Pilot and they have been doing a great job and give very good customer service which is rare. My account is up more than it would be if I were continuing to go it alone. I'm very happy with these people--whoever they are.

-Valeri

[AllexBancs]

Please note...I am not asking you to reveal any ******** trade secrets:X...but...what can you tell us about the service? How often have asset allocations been changed? How long have you used the service? What is your percentage gain/loss since beginning the service? What do you like/dislike about it?

Thanks...and keep it real:^,

AllexBancs

Valeri, it is interesting to hear what someone has to say who actually subscribes to their service. Q. How much is your account up? And, is it up more than what one could reasonably hope for if they followed this board and made their own decisions? It would be interesting to follow your progress, if you would post your results. I am sure that there would be great interest to see if a real person using their info can achieve what they advertise. :)

Merry Christmas! And a prosperous New Year!

[smedlap]

Come on Chaplain. Get a grip. This isfreelance and honest, Trying to be greedy? Where are you?? I was 100% I account today and have rotated into 100% S acount Tuesday morning. How can that site offerbetter recommendations then the honest researched posts here, plus you have pay. Think that if one played C account for the year, their alledged goal was hit. Tom has achieved very commendable earnings as a conservative plus an honest dig! Do you think someone else can provide better info then 100 of us??I've odne better then Tom because of everyone on this board! But I am aggressive. Don't follow the piper Chaplain, make your own decisions, contribute here, and a prayor! I find it all better and healthier.

It was minus 30 today with wind chilllll. Going to Phoenix with a frozen ass! Not much ass left at -30!!!!

Smedlap, my point exactly! :^

Here in MN, it was brrr freezy cold, and freezing rain to boot. AZ sounds about right, but gotta stay home and be the chaplain for the holidays. Enjoy, and Merry Christmas!

[grandma]

smedlap wrote:
Come on Chaplain. Get a grip.

It was minus 30 today with wind chilllll.





:ooYou definately read Chaplain's note in a different light than I did. It seemed to me he was 1)commmenting on the fact that here is a person who has actually done business w/a pay site & feels they have been profitable for her. 2) The questions he asked were concerning the accuracy & format followed to come up with those numbers. 3)if they are so good why is Valeri here ?

:)We All Welcome Valeri, as we do everyone -

As far as the -30 wind chill, :!keep your head covered, your mittens pinned to your sleeves, and goulashes buckled up!!

Grandma, thanks. You stated well what I should have been less obtuse about. You should suffer through one of my homilies :D.

Hope you have a great Christmas, and are able to be with your grandchildren.

[Timer]

Anybody who wants to learn from TSPilot is perfectly welcome here right gang? :D We're here for our own mutual aid - yes? One thing I think I heard Chap say was that he'd be interested in hearing from Val what she though of / learned from the site short of violating her agreement with TSPilot.

[Timer]

Timer wrote:
One thing I think I heard Chap say... I meant to say AlexxBanks say.

[grandma]

Timer wrote:
:D We're here for our own mutual aid - yes?
thank you, Timer, for making my reply a bit clearer. :^

Valeri, I didn't mean to leave you dangling with such a generic sentence. I meant for you to hear "Valeri, :!I am glad you are with us, and no doubt you can shed some light on the unknown for us regarding the pay sites." As no doubt everyone else is,too.

Who knows - tsptalk may become a pay site itself? :#

:iI think Smedlap had one thing on his mind, that was to get signed off and head to warmer climates!!

[grandma]

Chaplain wrote:

Hope you have a great Christmas, and are able to be with your grandchildren.
Thank you, Chaplain, for the kind wish! As it is, I :!GET :!to work - lets hear a little enthusiam from thereaders here !!! :l The hopeful part is my grandkids bring me some supper !!!!

[Rod]

Valeri wrote:
...whoever they are.




That's the scary part.;)

[Rod]

grandma wrote:

Who knows - tsptalk may become a pay site itself? :#





I'd pay.:^ Tom deserves some compensation, so I hope everyone here sends him a donation every now & then.

It's the least we can do.

God Bless:)

Hi Valeri! I'm glad you're finding it helpful. I was thinking of using it but became wary because of all that was previously described. Could you tell us more specifically how it has been doing and the time periods? That would be helpful. Also, how long did you subscribe for? Thanks.

[Valeri]

What you've been hearing here is probably from people who had never subscribed to TSP Pilot. All I can say is that I'm very happy with them, my account is up, and they're very professional. I joined this Board because I'm generally interested in my TSP account--not to try to pick up a concensus allocation opinion.

I'd be interesting to hear what other actual subscribers have to say about this service.

Happy Holidays!

-Valeri

[Dogdaddy]

Valeri wrote:
I'd be interesting to hear what other actual subscribers have to say about this service.

Happy Holidays!

-Valeri



Valeri:

I'm with you on this one...I've been a ******** subscriber since 9/1/04 and am very happy with the allocation recommendations, support, and the growth in my TSP account so far. I did a lot of research on the Company, their models, and methodology and don't see any problems. The "nay-sayers" can go to their website and look at all the technical info and request a sample Newsletter , which will show all the allocation recommendations for 2004, with the exception of the last 3 or 4. The methodology they use is similar to that used by many of the regular posters here, but is perhaps a bit more conservative to minimize the risk of huge drawdowns during downturns. I occasionally "tweak" the allocations a bit (ie F and I Funds), but not much....it works for me, but , of course, ONLY TIME WILL TELL !

Regards,

Nick/Dogdaddy

AllexBancs wrote:
Please note...I am not asking you to reveal any ******** trade secrets:X...but...what can you tell us about the service? How often have asset allocations been changed? How long have you used the service? What is your percentage gain/loss since beginning the service? What do you like/dislike about it?

Thanks...and keep it real:^,

AllexBancs
This kind of information would be informative.

[AllexBancs]

Yes, I would like to get answers to my questions:^. Am I the only one concerned that no one knows who exactly runs this service? It is asking a lot for the subscriber to trust an unknown person/team to make asset allocation decisions. I mean we are talking about your retirement account here. Why are they not more forthcoming with the information? If they were, I feel they would have people lining up to pay their fee.

BTW, all the backtesting means nothing when it comes to future returns. As soon as something works and people pick up on it it suddenly doesn't work anymore.



Anyone else considering using this service in the new year?

AllexBancs

[Rod]

AllexBancs wrote:
Yes, I would like to get answers to my questions:^. Am I the only one concerned that no one knows who exactly runs this service? It is asking a lot for the subscriber to trust an unknown person/team to make asset allocation decisions. I mean we are talking about your retirement account here. Why are they not more forthcoming with the information? If they were, I feel they would have people lining up to pay their fee.

BTW, all the backtesting means nothing when it comes to future returns. As soon as something works and people pick up on it it suddenly doesn't work anymore.





Yes, that should indeed be a concern.

This "nay-sayer" is not naive, Dogdaddy (not saying you are either). But, I most certainly would not pay anyone without a legit name & address, especially since they would obviously have my credit card info.

Anything can look attractive in the short term, and you've only been with them for 3 months.

Them not disclosing any personal info should have raised a red flag. All we're saying is beware ofthe possibleWolf in sheep's clothing...;)

Merry Christmas!:^

[Dogdaddy]

Chaplain:

As explained on their website, they only do allocation changes when a combination of their models indicate strong trend changes...... average couple of times a month. Since 9/1/04 I have realized about 9% growth. Probably would have come out closer to 8%, had I not opted to be 100% G, during a couple of "scarey" Geo-political events. During the same period, C increased about 8.5%, and S & I increased about 14.3%, but with much greater volatility and risk, I might add.

I strongly advise you to invest a little time, go to their website, review their materials, request a Sample Newsletter, and judge for yourself....I'm not trying to sell their service, but rather just responding to the questions asked. That's about as honest as I can get !

Nick

[SystemTrader]

I'm thinking the paid TSP services are waiting to post their annual returns. I'm quite curious about them myself. Ijumped the gunand put my resultsto date(quarterly/annual/2004 allocations) in the SystemTrader Account folder (latest post). :) I'll update them after 31 Dec.

~John

[zbwmy]

Hey Alex,

Tell us exactly what information you would need from TSP PILOT before forking over th $17.00 bucks a month?

[AllexBancs]

zbwmy...once again you are right:^(only 17 clams). Wasn't I the one about 8 months ago that called you the Warren Buffet (hey that reminds me...I'm starving) of the TSP? You continue to show your prowess:cool:. Happy Holidays to you. Let's keep it real.:zz

[tsptalk]

If I knew you folks were looking for a pay site, I'd have charged for this one. ;)

[smiley]

:DI CAN'T SAY THANK YOU ENOUGH for the hard work that goes into this site. I was looking at TSP Pilot when I found this site. I started following and making TSP TALK allocation changes on October 8, 2004, since that time my account balance has increased by $9,000 not including my contributions!!!! TSP Pilot seemed to be a little too shady for me, it was like everything is a big secret. No mystery here - Besides why would you pay for something that is free AND has a tremendous amount of information ready for the taking. THANKS for all the time you put into this site. I have been spreading the word in my world and folks are excited to have found your site.

:^KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!!!!! :^

[TSP-roulette]

My manythanks to you Tom.I have been riding your coat-tails since joining earlier this year and by doing so my account has made tremendous gains, particularly the latter part of this year. Icannot postor access the web site as much as I would like, we are not allowed at work, as our computers are constantly scannedby big brother for infractions.We are not even allowed to turn our computers off at day's end. Thanks for the web site Tom, for your opinion and suggestions and the time you put into keepingit running. My thanks to the rest of the forum members for their posts, ideas, suggestions etc, etc. Merry Christmas Tom and to all of you wonderful people. :^

[tsptalk]

Thanks smiley! And Welcome! :^

[Valeri]

I, too, am quite happy with this site and the contrubutions being made here, although I'm quite new here and haven't really paid my dues yet ;-) . I just suggest we all be a little more open minded about some of the other options that could be quite appealing to many of us. Remember, there are hundreds of stock market advisories on the highly reputed Hulbert Digest list that are largely run succcessfully and without serious credentials. Anyway, most of the experienced "experts" are usually wrong anyway ;-)

Anybody have an idea on where this upmove might go? I'mk getting a little concerned about a correction here.

-Valeri

Dogdaddy wrote:
Chaplain:

I strongly advise you to invest a little time, go to their website, review their materials, request a Sample Newsletter, and judge for yourself....I'm not trying to sell their service, but rather just responding to the questions asked. That's about as honest as I can get !

Nick

Dogdaddy, already been there and done thatand remain unconvinced.

[FundSurfer]

Thanks Valeri, how long have you been involved with TSP-Pilot? I saw Dog-Daddy had been with them since September, and I'm interested in hearing a few more long term testimonials.

Call me a skeptic, tight-wad, or whatever. I agree with whoever said that the background of the site was too questionable for me. I also found this site after getting unsolicited e-mail from TSP-Pilot. In my book, that is called spam. After getting their e-mail, I went looking for others. There are actually more than I expected. I'll see if I can't dig up my list and post it later.

Val & DogDad, keep us up to date on your returns using the service.

[Dogdaddy]

Chaplain wrote:
Dogdaddy wrote:
Chaplain:

I strongly advise you to invest a little time, go to their website, review their materials, request a Sample Newsletter, and judge for yourself....I'm not trying to sell their service, but rather just responding to the questions asked. That's about as honest as I can get !

Nick

Dogdaddy, already been there and done thatand remain unconvinced.
Chaplain: I'm honestly not trying to convince you or anyone else of anything......was just trying to share my experience with them and answer the questions you and others have asked. I view them as "just another tool in my financial toolbox". It does provideadditional diversification when combined with the many good ideas presented in this forum. (same reason I read more than one newspaper and more than one financial journal - just trying to broaden my knowledge-base).

[Timer]

OK, I’m not an apologist for TSPilot, I don’t subscribe to their site and I’m not an investor. I do fine on my own with a little help from you all but Val’s right, stay open minded peeps. Val is making money, DDaddy is making money, they say they are getting more than value for the money spent - what else matters? So you don't know who is giving you this advice, it's not like you're forking over your actual savings right? Just the costofa subscription - less than your Starbucks bill FCOL.I pay Tom something every month via PayPal -I've never met the guy!!! Also, is it so hard to figure out why they’re anonymous :cool::shock::cool:????? I'll be everything I have in the G fund thatI know the answer. Hint: litigation . If you followed their advice and you didn’t like the result, andif you knew who to sue, you might try it. The way they have it set up, if they were sued, they could fold their tent up and scatter across the desert. Itwould cost you more than it was worth to try toferretthem out. Tom’s not liable because this isn’t a pay site; you’re not paying Tom for his investment advice. Besides, he's not motivated by money; he just wants to help people - right Tom?(OK, I really had nothing to say - I admit it, I only post nowto see my hip new Avatar). And yes, I have nothing in the G fund. :^

[Timer]

Timer wrote:
I'll be everything
BET! I'll bet everything *sigh*
PS, did you notice the Avatar?

[grandma]

Timer wrote:

BET! I'll bet everything *sigh*
PS, did you notice the Avatar?

:l How could we miss it !!! I love it, Timer! Good creation!:u

And your previousposting should end with `PERIOD'. - well, maybe not end with, but somewhere in there, PERIOD would be appropriate!!

And, I hope there are more of us than not contributing to Tom's expenses on this site...:!

[Rod]

Dogdaddy wrote:
I strongly advise you to invest a little time, go to their website, review their materials, request a Sample Newsletter, and judge for yourself....I'm not trying to sell their service, but rather just responding to the questions asked. That's about as honest as I can get !

Nick

I did that about 2 months ago, and came away with an uneasy feeling.

1. They have no personal contact info. (I wouldn't give astranger on the street my credit card info... would you? It's the same thing.)

2. Their past performance is hypothetical.

"TSP Pilot is a commercial service not associated in any way with the U.S. Federal government. TSP Pilot does not issue individual investment advice. TSP Pilot publications are prepared for informational and educational purposes only. Past stated hypothetical performance is not an indication of future performance."


3.

"TSP Pilot is a new service from a new small company dedicated specifically to assisting Federal employees with optimizing and maximizing their Federal Thrift Savings Plan accounts. Our chief investment analyst has over 30 years experience as a professional investment advisor in the commodities, equities and options markets. He has professional experience dating from the early 1960's in designing and developing computer based investment and dynamic portfolio allocation systems for professional investors.

The company began recently as an outgrowth of his having been asked by a close relative to assist with optimizing her TSP account using some of the same computer based investment and portfolio models he had previously built over the decades for institutional and individual clients."

- Doesn't it concern you that there is no mention of this "new small company"?

- Doesn't it concern you that there is no mention of the"chief investment analyst's" name?

To me, it sounds as if they have something to hide... or better yet, they don't desire accountability.

"After over a year of research in rigorously analyzing, testing and applying time proven technical analysis methodologies to the specific five funds in the Thrift Savings Plan he began assisting that relative with her actual TSP account."

Wow... a whole year of research.;)

"Our chief analyst prefers to remain anonymous for now for personal and security reasons."

'nuff said.

[Rod]

Dogdaddy & Val, I hope for your sakes it is legit. Please don't take my comments personally. I respect the both of you. I'm simply sharing my take on them in the midst of this shadyinternet world of our's.

God Bless & Merry Christmas!:^

While Valeri tells us that she is satisfied with pilot, she doesn't actually say what her return has been....so it really gives us little to evaluate. OTOH, Daddy honestly states that the S & I funds have done much better than pilot since September. While I realize the pilot emphasizes that they can't guarantee success, their (or rather, his - its a one man operation out of michigan) ads/spam emphasize that you would have had a return of 400% over holding any one fund from January through September 2004 (even tho the pilot only started in the spring). We now see from Daddy that funds in the pilot have underperformed the S and I funds since September. That speaks volumes to me.

I'm also troubled by the bizarre disclaimer.

"By providing your credit card information to TSP Pilot, LLC, you agree that charges will be automatically and recurrently billed to your credit card....Any customer who disputes a credit card payment is subject to a fine, suspension and account termination at the discretion of TSP Pilot, LLC. A charge of $25.00 per chargeback will be assessed to all accounts that receive a chargeback. TSP Pilot, LLC will charge a $25.00 fee for returned (NSF) checks....Subscriber shall pay TSP Pilot all fees incurred in accordance with TSP Pilot billing terms. TSP Pilot may, in its sole discretion, change the amount of the subscription fee upon renewal without prior notice to Subscriber. Customer agrees to pay all costs incurred by TSP Pilot in collecting overdue fees from the subscriber. ...TSP Pilot reserves the right to terminate this Agreement or modify these Disclaimer and Disclosure Notices for any reason whatsoever, without prior notification. This Agreement supersedes all other agreements and understandings regarding this subject matter and is governed by Michigan and United States law without regard to conflict of laws provisions thereof." Why is he in Maryland but using the laws of Michigan?

No way am I getting involved in something like this.

[SystemTrader]

While I'm certainly not speaking on behalf the service in question, and don't know their actual practices, I may have a little insight on a couple of things.

The idea of "recurring billing" for paid membership websites is quite common. I don't have any problem with it as long as the website makes this very clear to members. I was a member of such a site briefly, and their introductory email explained this well ("You must cancel by such and such date or you'll be billed again for the next quarter.")

As for being incorporated in a different state, some ecommerce (and other businesses with customers nationwide) do this for tax or liability purposes. Often, they incorporate in Nevada or Delaware. There arevery legitimate firms that will help you incorporate out of state completely "by the book," and there are some rather shady firms that do this. But it can be completely legal and ethical if done right.

As forfining peoplefor questioning a credit card charge, I've never seen that one before. Maybe I just don't read enough fine print legalease....

[smedlap]

Red Herring post. Read all her posts in sequence.

Tom, you're doing great! Your posts are great!. I'm going to ride straight through to the near end of Jan but I'm trying switchbacks between S and I. I think the I is trying to get back in, just when is the q. as the C and S have done so well. Still have to 1125 on S&P by 31 Jan for fair market value100% so about 2% more. But the news has been great and the weather looks to still mild on the East Coast meaning more drop in oil.

Can you believe my 18:00 plane was cancelled due to Penn weather. We only have one TWA carrier which comes here 3 times a day.

Well "what think you" about the S and I as the I has mucho ground to make up, just to catch up to S. After the New Year?? I also think currency trades to the I fund are adjusted 2 days after the fact. That's my best guess to the I fund bonus.

Happy H!

[smedlap]

Sorry - I mean 1225 S&P fair value by 31 Dec. Where is MT? He's always quick to correct my math!

[tsptalk]

smedlap wrote:
Well "what think you" about the S and I as the I has mucho ground to make up, just to catch up to S. After the New Year?? I also think currency trades to the I fund are adjusted 2 days after the fact. That's my best guess to the I fund bonus.
I'm still waiting to see how the dollar's recent rally will play out. Is it for real or just a temporary bounce? I don't like the uncertainty right now.

[smedlap]

Hi Tom, just looked at the gains on TSP historical price.EFA which had a lagging gain today against S and C posted a fine return for the day on the I fund apparently due to dollar transactions. Crazy me, I'm S fund tomorrow but will be I on Friday. For me, there is just too much spreadand I think theIhas a catch up opportunity on the S. For that reason and the weakening dollar that will eventually manifest itself, I've made the switch due Friday AM. But I like your logic. You are a counterweight to my aggresive nature. And a godsend to so many others learning. Tailwinds lead to late Jan potential headwinds and you're sagecaution is what I am watching. Thanks, and best! Where is Chaplain and Puertorico. Have they gone to pilot.automatic???:X

[Valeri]

I subscribed to TSP Pilot in October for one year. I tend to stay 50/50 with the bond funds so the Pilot has kept me largely in the S&I funds during this last run-up. I guess I'm just not as generally skeptical as some of you are. Their analysis and systems seem very professional and the instructions quite clear. Frankly, I'm glad they sent me their "spam." If I hadn't heard about it I wouldn't have know to subscribe. Anyway, I'd rather not get into a fray in this thread over this company so I think I'd best move to another topic.Around my office there's nothing but positives about these people. Around here its all negatives. Very strange.

-Valeri

[FundSurfer]

I'm only negative on the spam issue. I'm not negative on them, only skeptical.

I probably should be greatful to them as well because their spam got me thinking.

I think they made a big mistake with the spam thing because I think it got them on my agencies junk e-mail list so that their e-mails will now have trouble getting through.

Can you tell I'm negative on spam?

smedlap wrote:
Where is Chaplain and Puertorico. Have they gone to pilot.automatic???:X
Smedlap, I'm here! Just busy with the holiday season; i.e. winter solstice, Feast of Guadalupe, Chanukah and the others. Have a wonderful season. Will be back in the New Year.

Peace and blessings,

[Rod]

Valeri wrote:
Around here its all negatives. Very strange.

-Valeri



Not negative. Just cautious, and for very good reason.

Happy Christmas!!!:^

smedlap wrote:
Where is Chaplain and Puertorico. Have they gone to pilot.automatic???:X
Oh, I get it :). NONONONO! Search "Saraho" and this company name for more of Saraho research and a revealing link to documentation related to this company.

[puertorico]

smedlap said ....Have they gone to pilot.automatic ?

Tha market is in automatic pilot it self from now to jan.2.
Greeeeeennnnn :DI dont post to much just learning from
all of you.Nice information .Your guys are the xpert

I'm a follower:Dtoday- 10-c 30-s 60-i still beliving in I fund.

Valeri wrote:
Around my office there's nothing but positives about these people. Around here its all negatives. Very strange.

-Valeri



This site is a good way to escape from the "group think" of an office. One of the best ways to investigate one's suppositions is to expose it to the light of criticism. The fact that you are seeing nothingbut positives at your office should be a caution signal. Caution and skepticism are not necessarily negative, especially if warranted. Hope the diversity of thoughtwill add to healthy skepticism (sp?).

[Rod]

Chaplain wrote:
Search "Saraho" and this company name for more of Saraho research and a revealing link to documentation related to this company.



She raised some very good red flags in the following:

http://www.fatwallet.com/t/24/399763/

From Jan thru Sept 2004, each of the TSP funds were up anywhere from 1-4% (cumulatively). If you had followed tsptalk, you would be up about 2.5% during this time period. Yet, amazingly, according to the pilot, you would be up about 12% following his recommendations. Now that's an astounding return for this period of time. My question is..is it real? He also claims to have backtested for 15 years and to have significantly beaten all of the individual funds, hands down. If true, he should have zillions of subscribers. My question is whether these claims are legit. Looking at the website and disclaimer, my reaction frankly is negative. But I've still been trying to find pilot subscribers who will confirm these recommendations. Thus far, the only specific response I've seen is from Dogdaddy who said that the pilot is up about 9% since Sept 1 while the S&I are each up about 14%. That's a far cry from the claims made on the website for past months and years...



I mean, if you think about it, anyone can look at past tsp fund values, and develop a past allocation table that shows fabulous returns. The trick is to actually be able to achieve them.

"Our chief investment analyst has over 30 years experience as a professional investment advisor in the commodities, equities and options markets. He has professional experience dating from the early 1960's in designing and developing computer based investment and dynamic portfolio allocation systems for professional investors.

The company began recently as an outgrowth of his having been asked by a close relative to assist with optimizing her TSP account using some of the same computer based investment and portfolio models he had previously built over the decades for institutional and individual clients."

Rod,

The guy who runs the pilot site is an attorney witha full time job that does not involve investment counseling....(do the research yourself)... nuff said.

Hypothetically, if a person wanted a good TSP scam, what they could do would be topost bogus returns on their website in order to obtain a clientele, and also state that they are not guaranteeing a positive return.....Seems like a great pt job to me.

[tsptalk]

They say there's no such thing as bad publicity. I think the folks at pilot have gotten their money's worthwith all this free publicity/advertising.

Controversy! I should have thought of that. Brilliant! :P :)

tsptalk wrote:
They say there's no such thing as bad publicity. I think the folks at pilot have gotten their money's worthwith all this free publicity/advertising.

Controversy! I should have thought of that. Brilliant! :P :)You want controversy Tom - invite Mlk_Manback!
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/17/17_1_12v.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZN)Happy Holidays!

[Mike]

If that pic is accurate, I'd say Saraho is cute. That's my contribution to all this. And yes, I'm skeptical of anyone claiming big returns. :^

[Rod]

saraho wrote:

Rod,

The guy who runs the pilot site is an attorney witha full time job that does not involve investment counseling....(do the research yourself)... nuff said.





I agree. No argument there.

[smedlap]

Mike, did you ever think that Saraho just might be a guy with 30 years trading experience strating at age 28???? I have seen no facts posted by Pilotmisdirection.com, justcomments about lawyer and someone having 30 years experience intrading and a site that is soooooooooo friendly. I remember when my parents had me open my first account 40 years ago! Does that count?? As to lawyers, I'm for the chaplain! He's doing just fine with his posts. I'd rather argue with and follow posters making their best contributions to site posts for the who group.

For me, Puertorica made such a good return yesterday in the I fund, I think I will follow his advice for the near term, next Tom, Rod, Mike, Chaplain, and MT in that order. :^Where is Market Timer? Vacation is no excuse. The opportunity of his lifetime to deal with spam and he's not here!!

Haha. Thanks, Mike. And smedlap...maybe you're a 16 year old girl. But what difference would it make? Like you, I want to have a super TSP. I just don't want to get ripped off or see others get ripped off. That's why I'm asking questions and providing the facts that I'm aware of. Do you have any answers for me?

[charlesbell74]

Hi all. First off, I'm a new guy here, so please don't flame me too much! :-)

Sarah and I have gone back and forth on federalsoup.com about TSP Pilot. I have been a member of the service since September and enjoyed it enough to resubscribe for an additional 6 months. I will post my percentage returns at the end of each month so people can see how the service is doing.

For the last three months of 2003, I was up 12% (and yes, I did remove my additional funds from each pay check).

A lot has been made about how old the company is and their address. For me, the address is not an issue while the age of the company is a bit of a concern. However, I have enjoyed the commentary a lot and do feel that their percentages for each fund is well thought out.

Here are my findings so far:

1) Great customer support and service. They answer emails very promptly.

2) Nice commentary that has both a simple area along with more detailed technical analysis.

3) The allocations are neither short nor long term. I am personally not a fan of Tom's rapid trading method with the TSP, instead I like to look at a longer time frame to remove some of the noise and clutter. I like using a 2 week horizon for my TSP which the Pilot is close to.

4) The technicals that they use are similar to the ones that I use. I have used similar techniques to trade stocks.

5) For me, my time is very limited and I don't want to spend hours pouring over technicals to come up with my own percentages. As long as their returns remain strong and help to minimize my loses, I'll stick with it.

Charles

[smine]

Welcome, Charles. Did you say you were up the last 3 months of 2003?

Wasn't the market up pretty much the whole year?

[tsptalk]

tsptorture wrote:
Wasn't the market up pretty much the whole year?
Actually it didn't go positive for good until late August.

So they didn't really didn't do anything except say "Don't get out now"? And charged a fee?

[charlesbell74]

"So they didn't really didn't do anything except say "Don't get out now"? And charged a fee?"

====

Nope.

If you look back at their numbers, they had a few times during 04 that they recommended going nearly 100% in the G fund while others the amounts were spread fairly evenly through the different funds.

If you look back at the charts for 04 you will see that the market had a GREAT run at the beginning, fell sharply, and then slowly crawled back up.

Charles

[charlesbell74]

Welcome, Charles. Did you say you were up the last 3 months of 2003?

Hi and thanks for the welcome. I ended up 12% for the final three months of 04.

I'm NOT going to be fully convinced of the service until I am in it during a market downtown. For me, I'm mostly interested to see how it handles large corrections.

I'll keep everyone posted...

Charles

[tsptalk]

charlesbell74 wrote:
For me, I'm mostly interested to see how it handles large corrections.
Good point charlesbell. The only way to beat the market averages is to be out when the market is going down, whether you have a longer term strategy or short. I agree, anybody can make money when the market is strong, but protecting those gains when things turn is just as important in my mind.

Welcome and thanks for joining us!
Tom

[charlesbell74]

Hi Tom and thanks!

I'll keep y'all posted about how it does. I'll post in February to give my percentage gain/loss for the month.

Charles

Hi Charles! Welcome! You know, a 12% return for the past three months (while the I fund gained 14.5%, S fund gained 13%. and the C fund gained 9%) makes sense. As you know, what I have had problems with are their outrageous claims thatthey havean avg return of 23% over 20 years...and the figures theypresent that show they beat the best fund by 400% from January to Sept 2004. That isthe point of my concern. There seems to be a serious disconnect between what is being sold and what is actually being produced. Thanks for continuing to provide feedback.

[teknobucks]

http://www.stockfetcher.com

do your own DD....100/year:^

Ed wrote:
I've been using TSP Pilot strategy and so far this year I'm down (2.26%).

Ed

Another happy customer...

Charles,

What was their allocation since the first of the year???

You may want to let them know half of their stuff has a virus on it. I tried to download their material and my Trend Micro does not allow me.

I am a fan of rapid in and out trading. If you can buy sell a share and it drops .04 the next day and buy it back that really helps your total return. Hold and hope I wished would be dead by now after just hold on to your stocks from 2000-2003 beating. Rapid trading causes the management people to earn their fee...hold and hoper are a management teams dream...you do nothing for your management fee for those folks...just tell them to buy on dips...the fools game.

If they got bearish the first of the year then they are something to look into...if they still have there same allocation then they are nuts.

Dome house top....means 30% drop (on average) have to be precise for Milk.

MT

[grandma]

MarketTimer wrote:
You may want to let them know half of their stuff has a virus on it. I tried to download their material and my Trend Micro does not allow me.

MT: what was their response when you reported that? Has that been awhile; have they had time to clean it up, do you think? I checked out their home page when they were first mentioned,even thoI wasn't interested.

[Rolo]

haha, wow, quite the ruckus here.

saraho...I think you are a little paranoid: there are plenty of legitimate Internet companies like that; I started one. I am in CO and my company's nexus is in IA...because my partner is there. There could be many reasons for that.

Oh yeah, my whois will still have me in FL 'cos I didn't think to update it.

Mailing address? Why? What's to mail? It's an Internet business...they don't have mailing addresses.

If therewere ever a problem, I am sure CitiBank, MBNA, Chase Manhattan, et. al. will be able to handle a wee little LLC.

The chargeback penalty, etc, is to keep people from using the service and asking for a refund, I am sure.

[SystemTrader]

MarketTimer wrote:
You may want to let them know half of their stuff has a virus on it. I tried to download their material and my Trend Micro does not allow me.

I believe you're referring toa different TSP advisory service...not the one in this subject line. Did the site havea bunch of AdobeAcrobatfiles? If it's the one I'm thinking about,it does (or did) have avirus.

Re:living in one state and havinga company incorporated in another--well,I'm nowin that boat, too. I recently formed an LLC in Delawarethough I live in the Southeast. I'm in good company, though...over half the Fortune 500 list is also incorporated in Delaware. :P

SystemTrader wrote:
over half the Fortune 500 list is also incorporated in Delaware. :P

How many of the Fortune 500 are incorporated in Michigan? *LOL*

Rolo,

My "paranoia" stems not from the dual-state incorporation but rather from the bold statements (23% avg return for 20 years, 12% from Jan-Sept when the funds were running 1-3%) followed by the legalese disclaimer to the effect that they can't promise that you will make any money at all, and the warning that they will charge you $25 if you don't pay your bills (which, once you join, are endless, regardless of the period you sign up for). Of course, that is all on top of the fact that the person running the site doesn't tell you who he is..merely that he is a veritable maven at investments. Yet a whois shows you that the person running the site has a full time job that doesn't involve investments. I mean, damn, Rolo.... You call that paranoia? I call it trying to avoid scams. *LOL*

[cowboy]

saraho wrote:
SystemTrader wrote:
over half the Fortune 500 list is also incorporated in Delaware. :P

How many of the Fortune 500 are incorporated in Michigan? *LOL*

Rolo,

My "paranoia" stems not from the dual-state incorporation but rather from the bold statements (23% avg return for 20 years, 12% from Jan-Sept when the funds were running 1-3%) followed by the legalese disclaimer to the effect that they can't promise that you will make any money at all, and the warning that they will charge you $25 if you don't pay your bills (which, once you join, are endless, regardless of the period you sign up for). Of course, that is all on top of the fact that the person running the site doesn't tell you who he is..merely that he is a veritable maven at investments. Yet a whois shows you that the person running the site has a full time job that doesn't involve investments. I mean, damn, Rolo.... You call that paranoia? I call it trying to avoid scams. *LOL*







Now with that being said, I wouldn't touch the sight with a 10,000 foot pole. Who says a woman can not have a good looking internet picture and brain too! LOL!

[Rolo]

saraho wrote:
My "paranoia" stems not from the dual-state incorporation but rather from the bold statements (23% avg return for 20 years, 12% from Jan-Sept when the funds were running 1-3%)
That I will not contest and am skeptical. I would also be skeptical if a Fortune 500 company made similar claims. Even if it were true, there is no guarantee that it will work in future markets...which:

saraho wrote:
...followed by the legalese disclaimer to the effect that they can't promise that you will make any money at all,


Umm....that is on every prospectus/investment dealie on the planet: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

saraho wrote:
Of course, that is all on top of the fact that the person running the site doesn't tell you who he is..merely that he is a veritable maven at investments.


That's who he is! Some guy with a system. It's honest, no? What more do you want? Firstborn? :D

saraho wrote:
Yet a whois shows you that the person running the site has a full time job that doesn't involve investments. I mean, damn, Rolo.... You call that paranoia? I call it trying to avoid scams. *LOL*



Ummm...I don't know who you are or what you do but I listen to your market comments, quite intently. Tom has a FT job and I take his investment comments very seriously. I have a FT job unrelated to my Internet business andmost of my clients are businesses who have no idea I am just some schmuck with a computer, which is irrelevant, forI make a product they can use. One request for a receipt on "company letterhead" was pretty hilarious. "Company letterhead".....BAAHAHAHAHahahahaha oh man...paper and stuff. I wonder if they wanted it typed on a typewriter, too!

Novelty and change tend to blur the line between paranoia and prudence.

charlesbell74 wrote:
I'll keep y'all posted about how it does. I'll post in February to give my percentage gain/loss for the month.

Charles

OK Charles. It is now February. TSP Pilot states that their subscribers were up 22.2% in 2004. Were you up 22.2% last year? Valeri? Ed? How about you?

Remember that the company was only created on April 2, 2004 in Michigan yet their claim is based uponrecommendations going back to January 2004.

http://tinyurl.com/645gn (http://tinyurl.com/645gn)

[pogo]

THAT'S THE FACTS------JACK way to go saraho. Nothing better than to see it official. Now lets get back to the markests 1) Companies buy back their stock at all time high in three years 2)Companies raising their dividends 3) When is the dollar going to start fallingMarch----April---- lets get back to work. i love this site thanks Tom

charlesbell74 wrote:

If you look back at their numbers, they had a few times during 04 that they
How a can a fellow look at their numbers for 2004? I looked at their website and they give NO detailed numbers. Not even a by-year return; just a 1999-2004 combined return.

saraho wrote:
Ed wrote:
I've been using TSP Pilot strategy and so far this year I'm down (2.26%).

Ed

Another happy customer...



Where did "Ed" post this?

greg wrote:
saraho wrote:
Ed wrote:
I've been using TSP Pilot strategy and so far this year I'm down (2.26%).

Ed

Another happy customer...



Where did "Ed" post this?

Dakota's Account Talk

greg wrote:
charlesbell74 wrote:

If you look back at their numbers, they had a few times during 04 that they
How a can a fellow look at their numbers for 2004? I looked at their website and they give NO detailed numbers. Not even a by-year return; just a 1999-2004 combined return.
http://www.********.com/bi/bi.htm (username tsp, password sample)

http://********.com/TSP-Pilot-Thrift-Savings-Plan-TSPportfolio.htm

[Rolo]

TABLE V




TSP PILOT 2004 ALLOCATIONS

DATE
G
FUND
(%)
F
FUND
(%)
C
FUND
(%)
S
FUND
(%)
I
FUND
(%)


1/1/04
0
0
8
30
62

1/6/04
0
10
5
28
57

1/15/04
0
35
5
12
48

2/5/04
0
30
5
23
42

2/28/04
0
35
0
30
35

3/18/04
0
35
0
25
40

3/23/04
0
20
0
30
50

3/31/04
55
0
0
20
25

4/21/04
75
0
0
7
18

4/22/04
80
0
0
10
10

4/27/04
89
0
0
4
7

5/14/04
43
0
10
20
27

5/28/04
28
0
10
27
35

6/15/04
22
0
16
27
35

6/21/04
22
0
15
28
35

7/5/04
10
30
12
13
35

7/9/04
35
50
10
3
2

7/18/04
30
70
0
0
0

8/16/04
20
40
7
19
14

8/23/04
15
25
15
25
20

9/1/04
14
14
18
21
33

9/24/04
11
17
18
21
33






















Okay, who wants to figure it out?

I told you. It's 12%. Now compare it to each of the funds individually from Jan thru Sept.

[Rolo]

Oh, sorry, heh. I have the flu AND I am moving...if that is any excuse...ehehehe.

So what's up with 22% in the narrative. Whyonchoo e-mail him, saraho, and ask? :D

<stir, stir, stir>

Rolo wrote:
Oh, sorry, heh. I have the flu AND I am moving...if that is any excuse...ehehehe.

So what's up with 22% in the narrative. Whyonchoo e-mail him, saraho, and ask? :D

<stir, stir, stir>

Moving with the flu.Hmmmmm... Doesn't sound like the best combo.

I told you already.He's using hypothetical%s.BTW,during the Jan-Sept period, the funds were up 1-4%. He claims 12% for his allocations during that period and 22% for the year. He also claims 23% annual return for 20 years. That's why we need Charles, et.al. to set the record straight.

[jgpalmerdds]

Saraho,

I'd be careful posting passwords, etc. to pay sights.

Rolo,

I'd be careful posting their allocations, too, for that sight.

I did that (posting their signal that I was paying for at this website) once for Timingcube and got a nice letter from an Attorney.

You can obviously do what you want, just a little warning for you.

Joel

Joel,

I wasn't postingproprietary info. TheID and passwordare part of a spam message from the site.

I would NEVER post proprietary info. For one thing, with respect to this site, I have no access to such info.

[jgpalmerdds]

Saraho,

I understand, my bad. Thanks for clearing it up.

Joel

[SystemTrader]

saraho wrote:
BTW,during the Jan-Sept period, the funds were up 1-4%. He claims 12% for his allocations during that period and 22% for the year.


Well, my system was up about 11% from Jan - Sep 04. And yes, this was backtested. It's using the same rules/parameters I'm now using real time, though.

A 10-12% return was achievable in that time period, and not just in hindsight. Here's how. Investall ormost of your $$ in the S Fundfrom Jan to Mar or mid-April 04. S was technically the strongest fund inmuch of 2004 and early 2005, so many indicators/systems would lead you to do this.By early April, both the stock & bond markets were showing signs ofdecay.Ifyour indicators caught this, you'd likely move to theG Fund for awhile.

(Incidentally, many stock timing systems, including TimingCube, flashed a sell signal last April. Since this is old news, and TimingCube gives their next-to-last signal free on their website, there shouldn't be a problem with me posting this now.)

In June, the bond market was picking up strongly. Jump inthe F Fund. Voila, that should give you a 10-12% return by the end of Sep.

Using shorter-term indicators or systems (or perfect hindsight :D), you may have also played the mid-May to June mini-rally in stocks. However, you would've gotten burned if you didn't pull out by late July. My systemavoided stocks completely from April to October. It doen't catch every move and is certainly not perfect! :P

Bottom line: this period played out very well if you used certain indicators/timing tools. Not every periodworks outthis well. I've looked at lots oftiming systems &market data, and there are other 9-month, 12-month, etc. periods where certain timing systems outperform the indices by ahuge factor. But none of them do this all the time. So if someone extrapolates a short period like this and claims this represents long-term performance, that's a whole different story... But I don't think they did this?

BTW, I believe you achieved around 20% last year, so I'm guessing you did some similar moves last year? :D

Regards,

John

Well, I didn't get 23%. What about the claim of averaging 23% over two decades. Is that feasible?

[SystemTrader]

saraho wrote:
Well, I didn't get 23%. What about the claim of averaging 23% over two decades. Is that feasible?

I believe they tested from 1989 to 2004. Yes, it is possible, butyoucan'tguarantee these results in the future.

Remember, this periodincluded the late 1990's bull market and early 2000's bear market--both of which had hugedirectional moves.Some timing systems picked up 50-60% in years like 1998 (and you'd get even more just bybuying/holding the NASDAQ!). In 1998, the S&P 500 made 20% in one quarter, just to give you an idea....If you avoided the mini-crash that year, you made out like a bandit.

If you made a few nice moves in the 1990s and spent most of your timein the C Fund...and thenavoided the 2000-2002 bear market (except for jumping in during the fall of 2001 and 2002), you could get thesetype of returns. This may sound like a stretch, but practically every timing system I've seen pulled out of stocks sometime in 2000. And afew seasonal and tech indicatorscouldget you in shortly after 9/11 and during the fall of 2002...and back out in Dec/Jan of the following year. That gives a 20%+ return during those years if you parked in the F Fund in the spring, late winterand summer.


Now, if theall of1989-2004 looked more like 1992-1994 (very flat and choppy), you'd behappyto just make double digit returns. That's why a 23% past return can'tpromise any sort of numerical returns in the future.No one knows if future markets will be mostly flat or trending. Themost you can surmise isthata system has a strong tendency to be on the right side of large up and down moves. And there will always be some large up and down moves. But the volatility from1997-2002 was quite unusual, historically speaking--it wasa timer's dream.2004 wasn't a bad year for timers either, though. :D

Regards,

John

Thanks, John. Now let me ask you this. There are funds out there in the real world....Rydex...Ultra...et.al. that offer double the C fund, et.al. and double inverse the C fund, et.al. through the use of futures and options.Could you use your system to trade these funds? I would imagine you could obtain a far greater return trading these funds than the tsp funds.

[Rolo]

Good idea, saraho.



jgp: I pasted a table freely available on tsp pilot's web site...it is part of the selling spiel.

[SystemTrader]

saraho wrote:
Thanks, John. Now let me ask you this. There are funds out there in the real world....Rydex...Ultra...et.al. that offer double the C fund, et.al. and double inverse the C fund, et.al. through the use of futures and options.Could you use your system to trade these funds? I would imagine you could obtain a far greater return trading these funds than the tsp funds.

Good question, Saraho. Yes, I've tested my system--long only and long/short-- with leverage (like Rydex, ProFunds, etc.) on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. It moderately outperformed <insert name of popular, highly advertised timing system here> in each of these categories.This is basedon the posted results of the other timing system's website. And yes, I've started trading leveraged and short fundson each buy/sell signal. So far I've done this "conservatively," with the Rydex Nova (long, 150% of S&P 500's performance) fund and Rydex Ursa (short, non-leveraged S&P 500) fund.

You've probably seen timing systems advertise incredibly high returns--well over 100% a year. Again, they're again basing this largely on the 1997-2002 period. If I used traded all my long/short signals with full (200%) margin/leverage during that time, I'd probably be watching the sunset on some faraway island right now.:D Unfortunately, I didn't have my system then.

I think it's misleading to assume 1997-2002 was "normal," though. I'm working on my first website/venture now, and I'm giving 15-year non-leveraged results for my system using the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. (I guess you're on to something--my first venture isn't TSP-based. ;)) The performance is still quite good, but I refuse to base my claims only on the very best, leverage-enhanced results.

Another thing to remember is that with more leverage, there's more risk. A 15% maximum drawdown (MDD) goes to (approximately) 30% when you double the leverage. This isn't usually mentioned in the "Make 150% a year with our system!" advertisements, either. However, there's alsoa benefit to this. If you design an effective system with very low risk/drawdowns, you have a great candidate to use with leverage. For example, say a system has a 20% annual return with 9% MDD. You can use 2X leverage and still have a much lower MDD than buying/holding S&P 500 (it had a 49% MDD in 2002).

John

Note: as I've mentioned before, I'm not giving the URLs for my website(s) on the forums here.You may see them viapaid advertising on here in the future, though.

[charlesbell74]

TSP Pilot Update from me....



Hi all! Well in the month of January after factoring in my contributions along with NOAA's, I got a return of right around.....



Zero percent! So, no gain, no loss.



I'll post my results for February at the end of the month.



Later!



Charles

charlesbell74 wrote:
TSP Pilot Update from me....



Hi all! Well in the month of January after factoring in my contributions along with NOAA's, I got a return of right around.....



Zero percent! So, no gain, no loss.



I'll post my results for February at the end of the month.



Later!



Charles


Hey Charles. What gives? Tell us what the allocations were during the month. I don't want to hear about your factored in contributions. It sounds like your are BSing us.:X


I'm sure most here made money in January if they factor in their contributions... Give me a break!!

[charlesbell74]

I took my total from Februaryminus Total from January and then subtracted out all contributions from my account and from NOAA.

End result of X minus Y minus allocations came out to $0

I did NOT make or lose any money in the TSP outside of what was put into it.

If Iinclude all pieces, the account grew by 4.5%.

Charles

charlesbell74 wrote:
I took my total from Februaryminus Total from January and then subtracted out all contributions from my account and from NOAA.

End result of X minus Y minus allocations came out to $0

I did NOT make or lose any money in the TSP outside of what was put into it.

If Iinclude all pieces, the account grew by 4.5%.

Charles

Charles, why are you playing games? The info you are providing is meaningless. The money that you are deducting is still being invested and the compounding isstill affecting the return.

What you really should do is one of two things...either (a) tell us what the allocations were during the month or (b) if you think that is proprietary, then, start with$1,000and work it thru the allocations for themonth and see what you get.

[charlesbell74]

Sara,

$1000at the start ofJanuary

$1045 at the end of January.

Gain of 4.5%

Charles

P.S. I will NOT be posting any more TSP Pilot info here due to:

"Charles, why are you playing games? The info you are providing is meaningless."

"I don't want to hear about your factored in contributions. It sounds like your are BSing us."

"Give me a break!!"

If anyone else wants to keep in touch about TSP Pilot peformance, drop me an email.

charlesbell74 wrote:
Sara,

$1000at the start ofJanuary

$1045 at the end of January.

Gain of 4.5%

Charles

P.S. I will NOT be posting any more TSP Pilot info here due to:

"Charles, why are you playing games? The info you are providing is meaningless."

"I don't want to hear about your factored in contributions. It sounds like your are BSing us."

"Give me a break!!"

If anyone else wants to keep in touch about TSP Pilot peformance, drop me an email.

If the TSP Pilot really returned 4.5% in January, I'm signing up. But somehow, your extreme sensitivity to criticism and lack of openness unfortunately leaves me as a disbeliever. Do you work for the company, Charles?

[charlesbell74]

I'm currently on amidnight shift and what you posted did not set well with me.

And no, I do not have any relation with TSP Pilot.

Charles


P.S. Using this method, my numbers for October-December shoot up from 12% (what I reported) to:

$1000 at the end of September

$1279 at the end of December

27.9% return using this.

Again, that is with ALL contributions added.

P.P.S. I forgot to add that my address is charles_bell74@yahoo.com (mailto:charles_bell74@yahoo.com) if people want the results.

charlesbell74 wrote:
I'm currently on amidnight shift and what you posted did not set well with me.

And no, I do not have any relation with TSP Pilot.

Charles


P.S. Using this method, my numbers for October-December shoot up from 12% (what I reported) to:

$1000 at the end of September

$1279 at the end of December

27.9% return using this.

Again, that is with ALL contributions added.

I give up. No more criticism of you. It obviously has no effect. All I will say is this: based on your feedback, I'm not going into ********.

[Dogdaddy]

Hey Charles:

Don't let 'em get you down........By my count, you're the 4th Satisfied ******** subscriber that has been questioned, criticized, and attacked by Sara Ho and others for attempting to honestly share their experience with this board. That's why you don't see many (or any?) postings from any of us. (valeri,bklyngal, me, and now you).

Looks to me like these folks are fishing for the ******** allocations without paying the subscription fee. I like this board, but, like you, really dislike some of the abusive dialog ! Guess we should just chalk it up to to the apparent IGNORANCE of the abusers.

Regards and wish you continued success with your TSP Funds.

Nick/Dogdaddy

P.S. Grandma - now you know why I haven't been around

[charlesbell74]

Hi Nick.

I have kept an open mind toward ******** and was happy enough with my first three months to extend it for six more months. I've always felt that the small price you pay for it was worth it if it helped me get an additional 3 or so percent as that would amount to a lot over time. Will it get me that 3%...only time will tell...

My reason for coming back here was to just keep people updated with my gains or losses and report if I was satisfied with it or not. I felt that if I was unhappy I could come back and save everyone some money.

However, as I posted before, I will not be coming back here to post updates any more on my progress with ********.

Charles

I just find it fascinating that you are so ecstaticover a service in whichyouhave no clue as towhat your return is.

BTW, My criticism comes from my frustration in getting a straight answerto my simple question over many months...what was the actual return? If you look over the many posts over the past few months, you'll see what I mean. It makes you wonder...

[charlesbell74]

"are so ecstaticover a service"

You must not be talking about me then. I am NOT ecstatic over it. I am satisfied with it and continued my subscription to see how it does.

Charles


P.S. Do you want a copy of my TSP report from the last two quarters???????

[Rolo]

saraho wrote:
"Charles, why are you playing games? The info you are providing is meaningless."

"I don't want to hear about your factored in contributions. It sounds like your are BSing us."

"Give me a break!!"

Paranoid Personality Disorder
American Description

Diagnostic Criteria



A pervasive distrust and suspiciousness of others such that their motives are interpreted as malevolent, beginning by early adulthood and present in a variety of contexts, as indicated by four (or more) of the following:
suspects, without sufficient basis, that others are exploiting, harming, or deceiving him or her

is preoccupied with unjustified doubts about the loyalty or trustworthiness of friends or associates

is reluctant to confide in others because of unwarranted fear that the information will be used maliciously against him or her

reads hidden demeaning or threatening meanings into benign remarks or events

persistently bears grudges, i.e., is unforgiving of insults, injuries, or slights
perceives attacks on his or her character or reputation that are not apparent to others and is quick to react angrily or to counterattack

has recurrent suspicions, without justification, regarding fidelity of spouse or sexual partner

Does not occur exclusively during the course of Schizophrenia, a Mood Disorder With Psychotic Features, or another Psychotic Disorder and is not due to the direct physiological effects of a general medical condition.
Note: If criteria are met prior to the onset of Schizophrenia, add "Premorbid," e.g., "Paranoid Personality Disorder (Premorbid)."

:D



meaning: saraho, good grief! TSP Pilot is not out to get you.

Chuckie-ding-dong: Your updates informative. Thank you and please continue with your comments on the service.

Thank you Rolo for your astute comments. With a 4.5% return in January, it sounds like the perfect fund for you. :P

[Dogdaddy]

Rolo wrote:
saraho wrote:
"Charles, why are you playing games? The info you are providing is meaningless."

"I don't want to hear about your factored in contributions. It sounds like your are BSing us."

"Give me a break!!"

Paranoid Personality Disorder
:D

meaning: saraho, good grief! TSP Pilot is not out to get you.

Chuckie-ding-dong: Your updates informative. Thank you and please continue with your comments on the service.



BRAVO ROLO....You hit the proverbial nail right on the head !!!!!!!

:^ Nick

[charlesbell74]

For those who care...

If I put the TSP Pilot allocation numbers in the spreadsheet here on tsptalk.com I get a return in January of -.90% So, pretty close to my 0% that I posted earlier.

Charles

charlesbell74 wrote:
For those who care...

If I put the TSP Pilot allocation numbers in the spreadsheet here on tsptalk.com I get a return in January of -.90% So, pretty close to my 0% that I posted earlier.

Charles

Charles, I think you're a sweet and sincere person. However, as I think you can see, learning the monthly return for the pilot is like trying to grasp mercury...

[Rolo]

saraho wrote:
learning the monthly return for the pilot is like trying to grasp mercury...

Easy...just remove that old thermometer from yer butt:shock:and we'll have 1. Hg and 2. less pouncycatfighting. :D

[Rolo]

saraho wrote:
Thank you Rolo for your astute comments. With a 4.5% return in January, it sounds like the perfect fund for you. :P
1. It's not a fund, it's a fund advisory service. :P My January return was -2.5%, so you may be right. :P

2. Eeeeewwwwww! Don't touch me...yer a girl and youse gots cooooooties. :P

3. Since the simple calculation of { (Ending bal. - Beginning bal. - contribs) /Beginning bal. }is not good enough for Miss Priss, how does one compute one's TSP return for any given period, taking contributions into account? My head already hurts...I hate math...and I don't wanna make my head hurt more by trying to figure that out.

[Mike]

Rolo, you calculate your return doing this:

Current balance - 1/2 (amount contributed over given period of time)

Divide that by the initial balance + 1/2 amount contributed over that period of time.

Multiply whatever result you get by 100 to get the percentage.

Example: current balance $10,000; initial $1000, contributions $8000.

$10,000 - $4000 / $1000 + $4000 = $6000 / $5000 = 1.2 = +20% return.

[Rolo]

Hmmmmkay...why would you split the contrib in half? It cancels itself out so it is not too much unlike omitting it altogether, no? (when your contribs are a small amount compared to your balances, that is)

In Excel, I got:

B1 = Beginning Balance

B2 = Contributions

B3 = Ending Balance

=(((B3-(B2/2))/(B1+(B2/2)))-1)

= -2.52%

The simple way:

=(B3-B2-B1)/B1

= -2.56%

I'm all for precision, especially when it is 0.04 not-as-bad :D. Your formula, however, doesn't take into account when the contributions were made. Is there a way to do that?

[Mike]

The contribution amounts you'd have to keep track of... in TSP that's easy since they're the same (though they switched lately with the general scale pay increase)...

[Rolo]

ooooooooooOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

That formula works since the contribs are the same amount and made at the same, consistent interval, therefore, averaged out, they all will have been invested half of the time...I see it now!

The numeric processing portion of my head needs a soda-machine-like thump to operate properly.