TSP Talk Forums - Blogs http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/ TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan en Thu, 17 May 2012 07:25:05 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/misc/rss.jpg TSP Talk Forums - Blogs http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/ SPX options expiration calculation update http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/uptrend/1944-spx-options-expiration-calculation-update.html Thu, 17 May 2012 06:19:49 GMT Here is the options calculation update, continuing from my Monday post. Because the SPX cash market has moved and open interest in the SPX options... Here is the options calculation update, continuing from my Monday post. Because the SPX cash market has moved and open interest in the SPX options has moved; the previous target area (1370-1397) has shifted to: 1347-1398. The box has been pulled down. A bullish falling wedge has formed on the chart below. On Wednesday we saw a rally attempt fail in the first hour, but it will be rerun. Futures are also strongly up tonight (May 16), so I think there is a decent chance we make it inside the box to at least 1347 by Friday, but resistance at 1340 must be overcome first. A relief rally could carry the SPX all the way back to 1363 where there is significant resistance.

Name: optionsX2.jpg Views: 10 Size: 95.6 KB ]]> Uptrend http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/uptrend/1944-spx-options-expiration-calculation-update.html The bleeding continues http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1943-bleeding-continues.html Thu, 17 May 2012 02:57:41 GMT 5/17/12 Stocks rallied out of the gate yesterday on positive economic data, but sellers came in and the word on the street that it...
5/17/12

Stocks rallied out of the gate yesterday on positive economic data, but sellers came in and the word on the street that it was because of Greece again. An early 90-point gain turned into a 33-point loss for the Dow by the close.
Daily TSP Funds Return

C-fund: - 0.41%
S-fund: - 0.72%
I-fund: - 0.47%
F-fund: - 0.01%
G-Fund: +0.004%
The S&P 500 has been down 9 of the last 11 days - certainly more serious than a little pullback - and it is now down 6.4% from it's May 1st high, and 6.8% below the 2012 high made in early April.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

 The 200-day EMA is just 10-points below the current level and I would assume that the first test would hold in a bull market - like it did on the first test in 2011, but we usually get a little bounce when the 20-day EMA moves below the 50-day EMA and that did not happen, so of course nothing is certain.

The Nasdaq broke below that 2900 level that tried so hard to hold. The downtrend is here and while there is a good chance for a relief rally, there are enough red flags to start concentrating on selling the rallies, at least while the indices are below the 50-day EMA's.


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The damage in the U.S. markets has been modest with the 6% losses, but in Europe they are being hit even harder, and all three of the major indices over there are trading below the 200-day EMA:

The London FTSE...


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The German DAX:
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And the French CAC:
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The indicators are screaming for a bounce, but the charts are not telling a good tale. Our question going forward will be whether to trust any rally. Lately they have all failed but eventually one will stick for a few days, but then what? I will be curious to see if buyers step up if we do test the 200-day EMA, and how much conviction they will have. In 2011 the rally off of the first test of the 200-day EMA was a gain of 8.0%. Not something I'd want to miss. But seasonality is just so bad this time of May.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

 ]]> tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1943-bleeding-continues.html Legislation Aims to Help Feds Save More for Retirement http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/fedsmith/1942-legislation-aims-help-feds-save-more-retirement.html Wed, 16 May 2012 23:51:18 GMT Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI) has introduced legislation that would encourage federal workers to save at least five percent of their pay in the... Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI) has introduced legislation that would encourage federal workers to save at least five percent of their pay in the Thrift Savings Plan.


Dubbed the Save More Tomorrow Act of 2012, the legislation follows the private sector model of automatic enrollment in 401(k) plans to encourage higher savings and participation rates. It builds upon the Thrift Savings Plan Enhancement Act of 2009 under which all federal employees are automatically enrolled in the TSP (unless they opt out) by increasing the default employee contribution rate in the 2009 Act of three percent of basic pay to at least five percent.


Read More... ]]> FedSmith http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/fedsmith/1942-legislation-aims-help-feds-save-more-retirement.html Oversold, overly bearish, terrible chart http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1941-oversold-overly-bearish-terrible-chart.html Wed, 16 May 2012 03:25:57 GMT 5/16/12Stocks tried to rebound yesterday, but more news out of Greece sent the dollar higher, and stocks lower by the close. The Dow, which had been...
5/16/12Stocks tried to rebound yesterday, but more news out of Greece sent the dollar higher, and stocks lower by the close. The Dow, which had been up 63-points in earlier trading, closed down 63.
Daily TSP Funds Return



C-fund: - 0.55%
S-fund: - 0.39%
I-fund: - 1.83%
F-fund: - 0.01%
G-Fund: +0.004%
The S&P 500 has broken down from the head and shoulders pattern and the technical picture looks awful, but it has been down 8 of the last 10 days and is due for some kind of relief rally.


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The dollar continues to rally on the weakness out of Europe. This is acting like an anchor to the U.S. markets. This chart of the dollar looks very bullish, but it may be due for a pullback after being up 11 days in a row.


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The indicators are quite stretch to the oversold side. Markets don't always instantly turnaround when they get this oversold, but you can see that hitting levels this low does tends to precede at least short-term rallies.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Another look at both of the dumb money put / call ratios, the CBOE and Equity ratios, shows just how bearish they have become. That Equity ratio (in blue) is down to 0.83 and that is the 3rd most bearish reading on this 3-year chart.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

This is an awful looking market, but unless Greece falls off of the map in the next few days, we should start to see some money come back in to buy bargains. There is a lot of resistance overhead so I think the rallies will need to be sold, but the more people that are looking for that rally to sell, the harder it may be to get one. The Facebook IPO is Friday. While overhyped already, it may bring a little optimism with it.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

 ]]> tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1941-oversold-overly-bearish-terrible-chart.html Blue Monday http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1940-blue-monday.html Tue, 15 May 2012 01:54:16 GMT
5/15/12

Mondays have sure been a struggle for this market since the early April high. Yesterday's 125-loss was the 4th negative Monday in a row, and 5th out of the last 6. Now the bulls are looking for a turnaround Tuesday.

 Daily TSP Funds Return


C-fund: - 1.10%
S-fund: - 1.34%
I-fund: - 1.76%
F-fund: +0.13%
G-Fund: +0.004%
The S&P 500 chart is clearly broken, but with the 20-day EMA crossing below the 50-day EMA, which is a short-term indication of being oversold, some possible weak support here just under 1340, and sentiment getting extremely bearish, I think there are two scenarios left: A crash, or a rally - and since crashes are very rare...


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Transportation Index has been beaten up pretty good too, but now the 200-day EMA might help. It too has just seen the 50-day EMA fall below the 20-day EMA.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq is stubbornly holding that 2900 area, and if it can hold, the bulls will be looking for that open gap to finally get filled which, if timed right, could coincide with a test of the new descending resistance like.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
At the risk of being redundant, I wanted to show that, while the dumb money (CBOE and Equity) continues to get heavily bearish with their put/call ratio, the smart money (OEX) has started to get a little more interested in buying.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note is flirting with the 2011 lows, which would be a new all-time low if it is broken. How low can it go?


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

I don't know, but the bond market does not seem to have a lot of faith in the U.S. economy right now as the weak European economy will likely continue to be a drag on our financial institutions.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
 ]]> tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1940-blue-monday.html Options expiration calculation http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/uptrend/1937-options-expiration-calculation.html Mon, 14 May 2012 04:50:11 GMT Here is an options expiration potential range for the SP 500 index for this week; May 14-18, 2012. It’s a bit tricky because options are a moving... Here is an options expiration potential range for the SP 500 index for this week; May 14-18, 2012. It’s a bit tricky because options are a moving target, and I don’t have formulas that update automatically at this time. Based on options open interest as of the close on May 11, 2012, formula and statistics, the following is a potential range for this week: 1370-1397. This area can be seen within the red box in the chart below. The box may be subjected to some minor shifting, as options are exercised. Keep in mind the ideas and computation is experimental at this time.

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Actually I was surprised how closely the range inside the red box lined up with chart support/resistance. You can also see we have a wedge forming under the box (green lines), that would have to break to the upside for this scenario to play out. There was a test on Wednesday and Friday that failed to break the lower line (black arrows) and it was being tested yet again at the very end of the session on Friday. If this wedge breaks down, then this analysis is rejected. The primary trend is clearly down, but the market offered sufficient divergences and other clues on Friday that a relief rally may be the works. The market is at a tricky juncture to sum it all up. Thanks for reading. ]]> Uptrend http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/uptrend/1937-options-expiration-calculation.html <![CDATA[Sentiment is so bearish, it's bullish]]> http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1936-sentiment-so-bearish-its-bullish.html Mon, 14 May 2012 03:42:33 GMT 5/14/12 Stocks acted somewhat predictably on Friday as we expected the weak open after the negative JP Morgan Chase news late...
5/14/12

Stocks acted somewhat predictably on Friday as we expected the weak open after the negative JP Morgan Chase news late Thursday. But we also thought, based on the indicators, that buyers could step up, which they did. But with Europe becoming a major catalyst on the market, the buyers dried up as we headed toward the pre-weekend close. The Dow closed down 34-points.

 Daily TSP Funds Return

C-fund: - 0.33%
S-fund: - 0.04%
I-fund: - 0.09%
F-fund: +0.11%
G-Fund: +0.004%

For the weekly and monthly TSP returns, please see our recent TSP Weekly Wrap-Up.

As I mentioned in that Wrap Up, the indicators look pretty bullish, but the chart is really questionable. We've had many warning signs including the S&P 500 moving below both the 50-day EMA and the longer-term rising support line, plus the April lows have been broken.

In the short-term, sometimes the 20-day EMA coming down to the 50-day EMA triggers an oversold bounce.


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

 We have been watching this very bearish looking head and shoulders pattern break down. That neckline area, which coincides with the 50-day EMA, may be difficult to recapture on any rebound.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The head and shoulders is forming a classic test of the head failure followed by a break down.


Here's the better news: The investor sentiment is getting so bearish, that the bears may be running out of ammunition.

The 10-day moving averages of the Equity and CBOE put/call ratios, both considered the "dumb money" are at their lowest levels of the year, and looking back at prior times we saw readings this low, the indices usually found some support.


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The recent AAII Investor Sentiment Survey had a bulls to bears ratio of 0.60 to 1. It hasn't been that bearish since last September, and as you can see, readings of 0.60 or lower over the years, tends to precede market rallies.


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 41% bulls, 51% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.80 to 1. That's not quite as bearish as the above survey, but it is still a buy signal in a bull market.

The futures were down last I checked (Sunday night) but barring any major news event, I can see a bounce some time this week. Whether an oversold bounce can recapture that neckline on the S&P 500 may be the clue as to whether this was a pullback to buy, or if it is a prelude to a real correction.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

 ]]> tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1936-sentiment-so-bearish-its-bullish.html Scaling Back In http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/coolhand/1935-scaling-back.html Sat, 12 May 2012 22:46:01 GMT Last week we saw an incredible drop in total stock allocation for the Top 50. As a group, their total stock allocation fell by 61%. The herd (total... Last week we saw an incredible drop in total stock allocation for the Top 50. As a group, their total stock allocation fell by 61%. The herd (total tracker) also reduced stock exposure (by 8.82%). Reduced stock exposure proved to be the correct weekly call. Unfortunately, as ugly as the selling pressure seemed, damage was minimal for the domestic stock market. For the week, the C fund dropped about 1.06%, while the S fund only fell about .24%. However, the I fund fared the worst with a drop of 1.6%.

Name: Top 50 Fund Allocation.jpg Views: 434 Size: 30.1 KB
Name: 2012 Top 50 Trend.jpg Views: 438 Size: 35.8 KB

This week, the Top 50 increased their collective stock exposure a healthy 17.6%, but their total allocation is still only 48.6%, so bearishness persists in this group.

Name: Total Tracker Fund Allocation.jpg Views: 432 Size: 31.2 KB
Name: 2012 Total Tracker Trend.jpg Views: 433 Size: 34.3 KB

The Total Tracker also shows a pick up in stock allocations. This group raised their total stock exposure by 10.85%, which is a relatively large move. Total stock exposure here is 55.47%.

In spite of the huge bearish shifts last week, the market was down overall, so our sentiment survey took a a bit of a loss for the week. That survey remains on a buy going into the new week as well.

The Seven Sentinels remain in a buy condition, but have been under pressure since shortly after the buy condition was triggered. OPEX is next week, so I'm anticipating more volatility, but with limited downside action. I'm actually expecting higher prices overall next week, but we'll see how it plays out. ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/coolhand/1935-scaling-back.html TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1934-tsp-talk-weekly-wrap-up.html Sat, 12 May 2012 19:59:24 GMT Charts breaking down while indicators turn positive We had some red flags to deal with coming into this past week and the market acted... Charts breaking down while indicators turn positive

We had some red flags to deal with coming into this past week and the market acted like it. The TSP stock funds all finished in the red as the bulls were not able to hold onto any attempts at a rally.



Here are the TSP fund returns for the week of May 7 through 11.



I'm going to start out with a chart of the dollar which has broken out of a triangle type pattern. This recent strength is a result of recent negative grumblings from the European economies.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

 Since the dollar's successful test of the 200-day EMA at the beginning of the month, most markets have been struggling. When the value of the dollar goes up, it takes fewer dollars to purchase anything traded in dollars. That has affected price of oil, gold, wheat, corn, etc., and the CRB Commodity Index is down over 5% in the last week or two. It has also affected the price of stocks.

The S&P 500 has formed a head and shoulders pattern over the last several months, and in a bull market, head and shoulders pattern can break either way. It looks like this one has fallen through the neckline, and that is a bad sign technically.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Head and shoulders break downs tend to happen one of two ways, and we seem to be experiencing the second one right now as we've had a test of the head area.

The price of oil has also fallen pretty sharply, coinciding with the recent rally in the dollar.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The charts don't look all that good, but as we had been posting most of last week, we are seeing some very positive signs from the indicators. When the charts and indicators are not telling the same story, I usually take the side of believing the charts, so this market has something to prove this coming week. Will the increasingly positive indicators help turn this negative market around? Or should we have just sold in May and gone away, like we were told?

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley
 www.tsptalk.com
 Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
 ]]> tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1934-tsp-talk-weekly-wrap-up.html Air Force Social Media Accounts Surge http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/ohmygov/1933-air-force-social-media-accounts-surge.html Sat, 12 May 2012 00:51:58 GMT The Department’s official Social Meida accounts have been steadily gaining By OhMyGov! (http://ohmygov.com/members/OhMyGov.aspx)... The Department’s official Social Meida accounts have been steadily gaining

By OhMyGov!


The U.S. Air Force saw a surge of Facebook growth --an increase of 7.2 percent from April.


I
t is the largest increase the Air Force has experienced since the March 2012 surge; where it registered an impressive 140,000 plus boost of Facebook fans.

This despite a rocky month for the Air Force, which struggled to remain visible, the Department’s official Facebook account has been steadily gaining Facebook fans, leading to the impressive numbers seen, making it this week’s military department leader for social media growth.

The growth has also been steady on Twitter. As of May 1, the Air Force clocked recorded 91,964 fans on the social network service--for at total growth of 6.9 percent between April 2nd and May 2nd.



The recent spike in social media growth comes on the heels of a $156 million contract awarded to Lockheed Martin by the Department of Defense. The contractor--which manufactures planes, weapons equipment and other devices for the Air Force--will be responsible for building new training devices for aircrews and maintenance personnel. The new devices will be delivered to military bases in New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, as well as the Air Force's base in Ramstein, Germany.

The announcement has been a boon for Lockheed Martin's Twitter account as well, which has garnered over 24,000 followers since its inception.

The jump in social media fans is the first good news for the Air Force since ABC News reported that cadres of airmen and pilots have protested the new F-22 Joint Strike Fighter, citing the jet's oxygen deficit problems as a major concern.

www.ohmygov.com ]]> OhMyGov! http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/ohmygov/1933-air-force-social-media-accounts-surge.html Flat, but fireworks after the close http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1932-flat-but-fireworks-after-close.html Fri, 11 May 2012 02:50:16 GMT
5/11/12

Stocks were mixed yesterday as the Dow and S&P 500 closed slightly higher, and the Nasdaq and Dow Transports closed lower. The fireworks came after the close on Thursday as JP Morgan Chase reported a $2 billion dollar trading loss.

Daily TSP Funds Return

C-fund: +0.28%
S-fund: +0.31%
I-fund: +0.51%
F-fund: - 0.06%
G-Fund: +0.004%

After hours, the financial stocks were taking a beating and the index futures moved sharply lower. In an article at TheStreet.com I read, "From a big picture standpoint, this is a spectacular piece of bad news coming at a time when the broad market's trend is clearly negative so it may be wise to look out below."

There are many indications that this market may be ready for a nice relief rally, but it may have to get a little ugly first. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another big positive reversal day today, but then again with Europe still in the headlines, investors may not be too eager to buy before the weekend.

The S&P 500 held support but yesterday's action did little to help the technical situation. I am still watching the head and shoulders pattern, which depending how you look at it, may have broken down already after failing at the middle of the head test on May 1.


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

 That 1375 area will be tough to get back over as it is about where the neckline will meet the 20 and 50-day EMA's in the next couple of days. At this moment on Thursday night, the S&P 500 futures are down flirting with the blue support line.

The market leading Dow Transportation Index had created an inverted head and shoulders pattern. It is now testing its head and is at some important support. However, it looks like it wants to move down to test the 200-day EMA, and with the futures down, that seems likely today.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I had mentioned that the indicators are showing some positive signs. The put / call options show that the "dumb money" (in blue below) is as bearish as it has been since 2011. Going back the middle of 2011, each time the 10-day moving average of the Equity put / call ratio moved down near 0.75 to 1, the market seemed to find its footing and move higher.


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

 The smart money of the OEX put / call ratio (green) is also quite bearish, and that is not usually a good sign for stocks, but when both the smart and dumb money get bearish, it seems to be a bullish sign for stocks.

It wasn't extreme for the dumb money, but in March of this year, both the smart and dumb money were heading lower and once the smart money hit the 1.75 level, we saw a sharp, albeit short rally higher.

The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 41% bulls, 51% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.80 to 1. That is a buy signal which means the system will remain 100% S fund for next week.

This market is due for a bounce, but the technical picture puts it in a dangerous position. This is where your risk tolerance kicks in. There's a good chance we could rebound and those who have a high tolerance for risk may want to take a chance here. Those who are more risk averse may want to wait for the smoke to clear rather than trying to pick a bottom.

Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
]]> tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1932-flat-but-fireworks-after-close.html Sentiment Survey Results... http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1931-sentiment-survey-results.html Fri, 11 May 2012 00:52:00 GMT *TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 5/14/12- 5/18/12 **Hold**:* The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey... TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 5/14/12- 5/18/12

Hold: The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 41% bulls, 51% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 0.80 to 1. That is a buy signal which means the system will remain 100% S fund for the week of 5/14/12 -5/18/12.

* We had to delete another 110 duplicate votes from 1 IP address. It is an IP from the FAA offices in the Atlantic City area.

Bull market rules have been in affect since the week of 1/09/12:

See latest survey results

To discuss or comment on the Sentiment Survey, go to Sentiment Survey Talk

The legal stuff: This system is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We actively trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions. ]]> tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1931-sentiment-survey-results.html Bounce, but it will probably fail http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/uptrend/1930-bounce-but-will-probably-fail.html Thu, 10 May 2012 06:10:08 GMT After the intra-day high on May 1, the Wilshire 4500 (roughly representing the S fund) has declined 6%. The chart below shows the wave count. There... After the intra-day high on May 1, the Wilshire 4500 (roughly representing the S fund) has declined 6%. The chart below shows the wave count. There may be a wave counting variation as a and b could be waves 3 and 4, and waves 3, 4, 5 could be a, b, 5. Regardless of varying technical interpretations, I think it is clear that wave 5 has ended and now a A,B,C counter trend rally is underway. But it may not get far. The standard fibonacci retracements show a range of 691-701 or 2.3-3.8%. I think it would be prudent to get out near the 0.50 fibonacci retracement or 696, if you are already in the market or want to play this bounce. This counter trend rally most likely will be short and may be over as early as Friday.

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I suspect more loss is ahead for the market, because breadth has turned down. Below I have shown the New York Summation Index (NYSI) paired with the 6 day ema. The NASI has also declined and issued a sell signal. If the Facebook IPO is going to hold up the market, it better act soon.

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Further, the Wilshire 4500 intra-day reading yesterday of 675.56 and today of 675.59, have technically breached the neckline near 677 of a head & shoulders pattern. I know an intra-day low is not the same as a close in the daily timeframe, but a candlestick pin has been thrown through the support. This is an ominous indication. Another 6% decline may be in the works, as soon as the neckline is taken out, presumably after this counter trend bounce ends. Thanks for reading.

Name: emw_HS.png Views: 424 Size: 66.1 KB ]]> Uptrend http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/uptrend/1930-bounce-but-will-probably-fail.html A wild top trying to form http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1929-wild-top-trying-form.html Thu, 10 May 2012 00:51:14 GMT 5/10/12 Another day of wild swings in the stock market as the early 184-point loss in the Dow nearly moved into positive territory...
5/10/12

Another day of wild swings in the stock market as the early 184-point loss in the Dow nearly moved into positive territory by the afternoon, but alas it could not sustain the upward momentum and the Dow closed down 97-points.

Daily TSP Funds Return


C-fund: - 0.64%
S-fund: - 0.45%
I-fund: - 0.85%
F-fund: - 0.08%
G-Fund: +0.004%

The S&P 500 did not follow-through on Tuesday's reversal day, but instead made a lower low and closed down 0.7%. The chart looks to have created a head and shoulders pattern (H&S). An H&S is a continuation pattern, but with this one having tested the head already and pulling back down, it does not look overly bullish for the intermediate-term, although the short-term is probably due for a bounce.


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

You may remember this H&S chart where the test of the middle of the head is one of the common outcomes before a breakdown. With the ascending angle of this H&S, it may have already broken down below the neckline so well have to see if any bounce can get back over it. If not, it could be trouble.

The Nasdaq came down to test the prior lows again and that 2900 area held again. A slightly good sign, but the more often it knocks on that door, the more likely someone is going to let it in.


 Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow has now closed down for 6 consecutive days. Our friends at sentimenTrader.com is on top of this as they found something quite rare occurring. They said that this is only the 19th time since 1900 that the Dow has been down 6 straight days while it is still 5% above the 200-day moving average. You can see in the chart below that the short to longer-term had a pretty good record going forward.

"The last one was in 2006, and that was the only other one in the past 20 years. In the very short-term, the Dow's most consistent performance was 3 days later, when it was positive 79% of the time with an average of +1.0%."


 Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

"Even more impressive, its average drawdown (worst loss) during the next month was -0.6% compared to a maximum gain that averaged +5.5%. It lost more than -4% during its worst point over the next month only 1 time; it gained more than +4% at its best point 12 times."

They mentioned that if it declined for a 7th straight day, buying that day's close and holding for 3 days resulted in 8 winning trades out of 8 occurrences, averaging +1.9%.
One last time on the adage, "Sell in May and go away":

I found this chart at www.investech.com. Basically it compares two investors who start with a $10,000 account back in 1960.

One (A) buys on November 1st and sells at the end of April.

The other (B) does the opposite - buys at the end of April and sells at the end of October.

Of course it does not work every year and many of us are "what have you done for me lately" analysts, but over the long haul there was a huge difference in returns.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

]]> tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/1929-wild-top-trying-form.html Shooting stars on bonds http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/uptrend/1928-shooting-stars-bonds.html Wed, 09 May 2012 05:02:08 GMT Shooting stars appeared all over the bond charts today as shown below (AGG, IEF and TLT). AGG is Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund, and tracks the TSP F... Shooting stars appeared all over the bond charts today as shown below (AGG, IEF and TLT). AGG is Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund, and tracks the TSP F fund pretty well. IEF is Barclays 7-10 year Treasury Bond Fund. TLT is Barclays 20+ year Treasury Bond Fund. A shooting star is a one day reversal pattern. The candlestick (white or black) has a long upper shadow, and preferably no lower shadow, or very little. There is more probability for a reversal the following day if the star gaps up. Shooting stars normally appear at the end of an uptrend. A gap down the next day would confirm a bearish reversal.

I have marked todays and previous occurrences of these shooting stars on the charts; where you can see sell-off in the days following the appearance. Strong gaps and long upper shadows were particularly apparent on IEF and TLT. So now we will look for a reversal in the F fund.

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In the bigger picture, an F fund reversal and a US dollar reversal would support equities in the short term. The US dollar bumped up against resistance today on the US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) as seen on the chart below. The doji candlestick infers indecision. And there is overhead resistance as a descending triangle. Also the Euro looks like it wants to rally. So, I would not be at all surprised to see a shot back up to the 1286 resistance area on SPX, in the coming days; even if the market ultimately traces lower.

Name: dojI_UUP.png Views: 350 Size: 74.2 KB ]]> Uptrend http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/uptrend/1928-shooting-stars-bonds.html